At 12-2, the Pats are guaranteed to be #1 or #2 seed in the AFC. If we win out, we're the #1 seed. Only two other teams can get to twelve wins to tie us if we lose out, the 11-3 Oakland Raiders and 10-4 KC Chiefs.

However, the Chiefs can't pass us. Worst we can end up is 12-4 and the best KC can end up is 12-4 and we hold the tiebreaker against them (due to common game tiebreaker). Common games being Texans, Jets, Steelers and Broncos; and we are currently 4-0 against these opponents while Chiefs lost to Texans and Steelers. (Also note all three teams went 3-1 against NFC teams, so if we end up with same record we'll have same record in conference.)

If all three teams end up at 12-4, KC Chiefs win their division (head to head tiebreaker by beating Raiders twice) and we get #1 seed against KC Chiefs due to common games.

If the Patriots end up 13-3 and Oakland does as well (winning their final two games), Oakland has the tiebreaker against us based on common games (Ravens, Bills, Broncos, Texans) since they'll have gone 5-0 and we'll have gone 4-1.

So four HFA clinching scenarios:

1. We go 2-0.

2. We go 1-1 (Pats finish 13-3) and Raiders lose or tie a game (Raiders finish 12-4 or 12-3-1 or worse).

3. We go 0-2 (Pats finish 12-4) and have a better record than Raiders by having Oakland lose two games (or one tie and one loss) (Raiders finishes 11-5 or 11-4-1).

4. We go 0-2 (Pats finish 12-4), KC wins out to finish 12-4 and Raiders lose one to finish 12-4.

Note only one of these can be secured in week 16 to make week 17 meaningless and that's if we beat the Jets and the Colts beat the Raiders.