abcd_z's note: Some of BlackDragon's statistics are inaccurate.
The average female-initiated divorce rate is closer to 78% than 82%.
People admitting to infidelity ranges anywhere from 7% to 40%, and the chances of a non-paternity event (which BD didn't cover) has a median chance of 3.7%, with chances rising to a median of 26.9% in situations where disputed parentage was the reason for DNA testing.

I don't even know where BlackDragon got the overall marriage failure rate of 86%.

The divorce rate, however, is 50% as he states.

Regardless of some inaccuracies, it's still an excellent post and BD still makes several good points.

Why Long-Term Monogamy Doesn’t Work In 21st Century America

Preface 1: If you’ve been directed here via a link, that means a point you brought up has been directly answered in this post. Hopefully, the person providing the link has also provided you with the section number so you can find the answer to your point quickly and easily. This is why the sections are numbered.

Preface 2: For those of you have followed my past posts on marriage and monogamy, some of this (though not all) will be repeat. This is because I’m trying to be as comprehensive as possible here.

What follows is my contention that long-term monogamy (including traditional marriage) doesn’t work. This conclusion is based on facts, statistics, observations, my own experiences, and the experiences of literally hundreds of people I have known, dated, worked with, or communicated with, over the course of my 37 year life. I will include all of those items here, as well as the responses to common objections people bring up when I postulate these things.

I tend to get the exact same questions and objections over and over and over again whenever I talk about this, so this will be the one big post that contains everything, so instead of repeating myself, I (and others) can just link to it in the future.

First, we must define a few things for purposes of this discussion.

A1
I am talking about monogamy. Monogamy, as defined in this discussion, means you promise the one woman you are with to not have ANY sexual contact with ANY other people, and she promises the same to you. And, it means you both actually DON’T have any physical sexual contact with any other people.

MLTR’s, OLTR’s, secret girlfriends, cheating behind someone’s back, and extramarital affairs are all NOT monogamy. Monogamy could include flirting with other people, but not actually touching them in a sexual manner.

A2
I am also talking about “long-term” monogamy. For purposes of this discussion the phrase “long-term” means longer than 3 years. For reasons we are about to discuss, it’s actually not tough to have a great monogamous LTR that lasts less than 3 years. Longer than 3 years, then we get into the zone where monogamy “doesn’t work”. More on this in a minute, but remember that “long-term” means 3 years or longer.

A3
I am also talking about the United States (and perhaps England as well). I am NOT talking about any other countries. A traditional marriage in one country is very different than a traditional marriage in another. I’m talking about the United States here. I do fully acknowledge that long-term monogamy and/or marriage does work in some other countries.

A4
I am also talking about this era. For purposes of this discussion, “this era” means after 1990. I am NOT talking about anyone who got married in the 1960’s, for example. Only people married after 1990. I am certainly talking about people getting married now, or who want to get married (or long-term monogamous) in the next 10 years or so. I fully acknowledge that that long-term marriage (somewhat) “worked” in other eras, where the law and social stigmas were quite different than today. But even then, the monogamous nature of these marriages were questionable. More on this in a minute.

A5
THERE ARE ODD EXCEPTIONS TO EVERY RULE. Whenever I postulate a fact, survey, statistic, or observation, there are always going to be odd exceptions. “Well, I knew this one couple once where…”. There are odd exceptions to every rule. Duh. The exceptions prove the rule.

A6
Let me make clear what I am NOT against:

1. Monogamous LTR’s that last less than 3 years. I have a personal bias against ANY monogamy that lasts past about 2 months or so, but I do admit that some wonderful short-term monogamous relationships can be had. Great LTR’s that are 3 years or less CAN work. But even then, you’d better really, really know what you’re doing.

2. Marriages that are temporary. If you want to get married, and know that most likely your marriage will end someday, we have no disagreement. Take the proper precautions and go for it. (If instead you think you’ll never get divorced and/or never experience an affair because “you’re different”, now we disagree, read on.)

3. Open marriages or open relationships. I completely endorse long-term marriages and long-term relationships where one or both partners are allowed to have occasional meaningless sex with someone else outside the relationship, within certain ground rules set by the partners. That DOES create long-term happiness, provided both people have a reasonable idea of what they’re doing. (Long-term monogamous relationships generally don’t create long-term happiness even IF both people know what they’re doing.)

Now, here are the reasons long-term monogamy doesn’t work, in the United States, in this era.

B1
Human beings were never biologically designed to be monogamous for long stretches. Less than 7% of the animals on the planet Earth are actually designed to be lifetime monogamous, and not only are humans not in that 7%, they aren’t even close. Even human’s biological “relatives” (primates) are no where near lifetime monogamous.

This includes both men AND women, but in different ways. I shall describe each.

B2
Women are designed to be short-term monogamous, but not long-term monogamous. As every man who’s had a relationship with a woman knows, women get BORED. Sometimes this happens within 3 months, sometimes it doesn’t happen for 7 years (the famous “Seven year itch”). Women are biologically wired to get bored with the man they are with within 2 to 3 years, sometimes much sooner. This boredom factor is accelerated the more time she spends with the man. I.E., all other things being equal, a woman is going to get bored with a man faster if she lives with him, then if she only sees him twice a week.

Women are designed to be selective in choosing their men, dating back to cavemen times (humans have the same brains and bodies of cavemen 200,000 years ago, more or less). They had to be sure to pick a man who would stick around and survive long enough to raise her children. So today, in the presence of CERTAIN men, a women’s brain will actually produce hormones that will excite her attraction. Much writing has been done on this and I’m not going to repeat it all here (I’m not a doctor or anthropologist anyway).

The problem is that over time, this hormone production begins to wane. Over time, the woman will actually, physically be less attracted to the same man. On top of this, she will also emotionally get bored with him at the same time. Society is FULL of married women who say “I love my husband, but I’m so BORED with him!”. This is a prime factor in the fact that 82% of all divorce is initiated by the woman (more on this statistic later).

On average, a woman’s sex drive for her man will begin to wane at the 2 year mark, especially if she lives with him, and this gets worse and worse over time. Try this experiment:

1. Take 5 married men from your life that you know. They can be of any age, personality, or background. The only requirement is that they must have been married for at least FOUR years.
   
2. Take each one out for drinks, individually, just you and him, far away from his wife and any other male or female friends. Just get enough drinks in him to get him relaxed and truthful, not drunk.
   
3. Ask him "How often to you and your wife have sex?”
   
4. Prepare to be depressed as you listen to his answer.
   

Alternatively, you could just ask him “How happy are you in your marriage?” and listen to THAT answer. Prepare to be enlightened.

This 2 to 3 year boredom period also helps explain why the vast majority of people who talk about that “great LTR they had once” are almost always LTR’s that lasted less than 3 years.

Note also that this is her biology. You’re behavior as her man does not change her biology. Giving her great sex, or “being alpha”, or running “solid relationship game” or “screening” does not change her biology. Nothing will (other than drugs, perhaps).

B3
Now let’s talk about men, where the situation gets even WORSE. While women are designed for some level of monogamy (short-term only), men aren’t designed for monogamy AT ALL. Worse, men are designed to fuck as many women as they can, to spread their seed around and ensure propagation of the species.

If a man is monogamous with a woman even for a few months, he is actually violating every biological urge he’s designed to have. It’s HARD for men to be monogamous, now matter how moral or mature they might be. EVERYBODY knows this. Here is a quote from Dennis Prager, a conservative religious pundit who overwhelmingly supports the concept of traditional marriage:

“Compared to most women’s sexual nature, men’s sexual nature is far closer to that of animals. So what? That is the way he is made. Blame God and nature. Telling your husband to control it is a fine idea. But he already does. Every man who is sexually faithful to his wife already engages in daily heroic self-control. He has married knowing he will have to deny his sexual nature’s desire for variety for the rest of his life.”

Sounds fun doesn’t it? Wow. Sign me up.

So there you have it. Being monogamous AT ALL for a man, and LONG-TERM for a woman, is a direct violation of our bodily and physiological functions.

B4
Common Objection: “We’re not animals! We’re more than just biological urges and chemicals! We are so much more than that! We have intellects and souls and can overcome these things!”

Answer: Correct, but working to overcome your basic biological urges is very difficult. Anyone who has been on a diet, or has tried to overcome an addiction to smoking, drugs, or alcohol, knows exactly how HARD it is to overcome the body’s biological urges. And this is what you are doing EVERY DAY in a long-term monogamous arrangement. Remember, even if you have been married for 15 years, if you or your spouse has affair just ONE TIME, you’re no longer in a monogamous marriage any more.

C1
Romantic love has a time limit. Romantic love generally lasts anywhere from 6 months until about 4 years on the outside. Much research has been done on this in psychology circles. Once two monogamous people marry or move in together, their romantic love slowly starts to transform into a type of family love. Your husband is no longer the attractive hot guy who totally turns you on. He becomes more like a beloved, cared-for family member. This has been compared to “a family member you fuck”.

Talk to any married couple who have been married a LONG time, as in 30 years, about their marriage. They will always relay two things:

1. They are in love, but not romantically in love. It’s a much more of a familial type of love.

2. They went through huge stretches in their marriage where they weren’t in love AT ALL, but “stuck it out” because of one reason or another (the kids, their religion, what other people would say, etc.)

In this era, when people (usually women, but sometimes men too) sense the romantic love waning, they get the feeling that “something’s wrong” and that they are “with the wrong person”, and then a divorce or affair ensues. “Sticking it out” is not something most people do anymore.

C2
Common Objection: “Marriage isn’t just about romance and love. It’s about a commitment you make to one another. Just because the romantic fire wanes, doesn’t mean two people can't overcome that and stay together.”

Answer: This is true, but men need regular sex, regardless of the “romantic mood” his GF/wife is in, or isn’t in. It is VERY difficult for a woman to sexually put out often if she’s not romantically attracted to her man. This means reduced sex, and this means heightened chances for a divorce or affair.

D1
The overall failure rate of marriage is 87%. This is an aggregate of many statistics, all of which are listed further below. “Failure” is defined as one of the three things occurring in a marriage:

1. A divorce.

2. Unsanctioned extramarital affair(s).

3. Both the husband and wife are miserable with each other but “put up” with each other because of expectations from society, or work, or family members, or religion, or some other external reason (many of you have grandparents who fall into this category).

If you get married, there is an 87% percent chance you will either get divorced, experience an affair, or experience a bad marriage that never ends. Marriage has a dismal 13% success rate. Let’s cover each of the three “bad” possibilities.

D2
The national divorce rate is about 50%. This is an overall average. In most major cities, it is closer to 62%. So if you live in a city of a million or more people, odds are the divorce rate you’re looking at is around 62%.

Also, what is commonly called the “divorce rate” is just a comparison between the total number of marriages and the total number of divorces in a given year and given geographic area. When you actually look at statistics on the odds of YOU getting a divorce, the picture looks much worse.

For example, the divorce rate for people living in a city who are under the age of 25 is 91%. NINETY ONE PERCENT! The divorce rates get more specific and saddening from there, but you get the picture.

D3
Common Objection: “I’M different that all those other guys. I’m an alpha! I’ll make it work!”

Answer: You can control your own actions, but you cannot control the actions of the woman you marry. Nor can you stop her from changing her mind or “getting BORED” (which, again, is a biological phenomenon, not one created by external stimuli).

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