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In an interview with GQ Magazine, James Cameron stated that the movie needs to be third or fourth highest grossing films ever to breakeven but I fail to understand how a 250 million dollar budget movie need 2 billion dollars for breakeven. Even with the delays/ promotion costs etc, 2 billion breakeven seems very high.
https://variety.com/2022/film/news/avatar-2-budget-expensive-2-billion-turn-profit-1235438907/
So that’s a bit of a toss up. More than likely it’ll follow the top gun model. Let it just get completely worn out in theaters and drop it to streaming just before a long break of some kind.
My guess is you’ll see this on streaming by spring break.
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That’s dependent on whether the studio wants it in theaters as a 2nd or 3rd run or if they just don’t feel like paying a print fee to the theaters and move it to streaming.