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The cake is a lie: The No Traitor Possibility
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TL;DR

There are traitor-free explanations for nearly all of the things most people claim requires a traitor. That doesn't mean there isn't one, but it does change or take down many theories.

Is there a traitor at all?

Its somewhat likelly, but not certain. I am not saying that we have proof there is not a trator. Instead, I'm saying we don't have proof that there is one. Many of the 'hints' don't require a trator. Before going into all the ways we might not have one, I'll say that my personal bet is the following:

40% -- Kanjuro, only because he could possibly make a clone of himself for the execution and is based on a paintor-traitor from Japanese history.

30% -- no traitor

30% -- multiple non-scabbards or a blend of events and people. I have one particular 'multiple people' theory I'll talk about at the end of this post. None of the Ideas in it are mine, but I've just pieced a few other people's theories together.

That is, I think it is less likely that there is a single 'one traitor explains it all' than other explanations, and at this point the ONLY 'single traitor' that I believe is Kanjuro.

But, Jack got to Zou!

So what? He had a Vivre card of Inu and/or Neko. How did he get it? Well those two were captured when fleeing Oden's execution. Maybe Kaido had them made then let them escape so he could track them and maybe find Wano one day. Its completely within his character to not kill 'weaker' opponents and turn them into tools, and not listen to Orochi if Orochi wanted them dead.

But, Doffy/Kaido/Jack knew Raizo went to Zou!

So what? Doffy had Violet/Viola who was shown observing events clear across the country when she wanted to. She could also read Kanjuro's mind after his capture. Determining who all the members of the group were and where Kanjuro/Kinemon thought they were would be trivial for her. No traitor required.

Kaido knew Oden was attacking!

There are ways he could have known this that don't require a traitor across time (others have mentioned the Old Hag), or there could be other ways to track some of the scabbards. Because Oda had Kaido tease that there might be a spy, there is probably more to this. "more" does not necessarily mean one spy across all the events though, it could just be the stuff from 20 years ago only.

Orochi knows the plans!

Ok now we are really getting into what needs solid explanation. There are a lot of possibilities here, and this post isn't going to go into all of them. I'm just here to go over some non-traitor ideas or debunk the idea that this requires a traitor.

Orochi has some sort of informant that he trusts. Someone on the inside. Maybe he has Intel from Kyoshiro who is getting leaks from Shinobu if she knows his identity? Maybe Hiyori had enough info to fill Kyoshiro in and produce the report to Orochi as part of his plan? Maybe... the person that set Law free was not Drake, but it was Kyoshiro and Law and Kyoshiro came up with the 'let Orochi think he has won' plan together -- sure Law has been cut off from info, but he could have found out more details from his crew or from someone else he is in contact with.

I'm not sold on many of these ideas, but the point is, we can come up with lots of non-traitor ideas that can work out.

My Thoughts

My personal leading contenders to explain these things are as follows:

  • Kaido got Inu and Neko's vivre card when they were captured then let them think they escaped on their own.
  • Doffy used Violet to determine the info about Raizo
  • 20 years ago: Kaido had an informant about Oden taking action -- either the old Hag or Denjiro -- the reference to 30 pieces of silver (Judas betrayal of Jesus for 30 pieces of silver) indicates he might make a traitorous mistake at some point and regret it soon after. I agree with a theory posted here yesterday that maybe he had a bargain with Orochi of some sort (after all Oden did), and it went sour, and he is angry at himself for it.
  • Present timeline: Orochi is getting info from Kyoshiro who is getting it from Hiyori plus perhaps Law and using it to deceive Orochi.

That said, the Kanjuro explanation can cover all four of these or only one of them. But I feel like it would require a LOT of explanation on his motivation that conflicts with what we know of him. (and he had many chanses to simply kill off Kinemon or Momonosuke). On the other hand, his character is possibly based on a historical painter that betrayed his master. That could be a red herring though, as could the 30 pieces of silver.

Either way, Oda has provided us with many ambiguous details so it is not plainly obvious. I am now leaning towards the idea that it is not one single traitor, but actions of several people to explain the individual details. That might involve both Kanjuro and Denjiro partially, and we know Law and Sanji are going to have some back-up ideas and plans. Law blatantly is hiding from the alliance to scheme, and Sanji made some blatant comments about the floating lanterns with IIRC, Nami.... Schemers will scheme, and they all know Luffy well enough to know that they shouldn't inform him of possible schemes until the time is right.

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4 years ago