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This week, a study of terrorists’ Facebook posts in the 100 days before committing an attack found that, compared to non-violent radicals, terrorists more often post about a friend’s attack and share content instead of posting text (Wolfowicz et al., 2020)
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Michael Wolfowicz, Simon Perry, Badi Hasisi, David Weisburd, Faces of radicalism: Differentiating between violent and non-violent radicals by their social media profiles, Computers in Human Behavior, Volume 116, 2021, ISSN 0747-5632, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chb.2020.106646.
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An interesting point! I think the most important part of sharing research like this is inspiring more research like this; this is one study, with a pretty small sample (48 terrorists) from one country (Palestine). The study’s authors were attempting to make predictive claims, but real predictiveness would require more studies, replicating this one, working with larger samples and wider study populations. Before any analysis of this kind of behavior could be meaningfully predictive, there would need to be a lot more research. Sure, publishing that research might change people’s behavior - but over time, with more data, bigger behavioral trends may emerge, a fingerprint of violent radicalization that is recognizable despite coaching. At least that’s the hope. This is a small step toward that, and I think the value of raising the profile of the predictive research outweighs the risk of changing radicals’ coaching.