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So I was just watching the morning Murdoch owned update, and one of the stories is about the falling birthrate.
Now it blamed women for having only one, or none, as if it's a choice for some. Me and my wife are having one after a disappointingly high number of IVF Cycles.
So for us, we're happy with one at this point.
But anyway, they were interviewing someone who must have been important to their story. Claiming to be some hotshot economist, and he was saying it was selfish for "young people these days" to not be "thinking of the country, and thinking of the economy when deciding not to have children"
On the flip side....it costs around $30,000 a year on average to raise a kid in Australia, so really, kids aren't cheap.
So it's not a cheap endeavour, and sure, there is some tax offsets and benefits for this, but not $30,000 a year.
Don't get me wrong, we're having our son because we want him and love him, it's not an economic question.
But if it's presented as an economic argument to have kids, obviously then you're looking at it as an investment.
Now, what's the ROI on the child?
Ok, you look at 18 years, 3% inflation, then over the next 18 years from this year starting at $30,000 a year, after 18 years you will spend $702,433 raising that child at least.
Now that's a decent amount to invest.
If I was investing it, then I'd be more inclined to drop that into a term deposit at 4.85%, and I'd make 1.85% after inflation.
After 18 years at 4.85%, I'd get a return of $832,255
So I'm getting my original $30,000 back, and an additional $802,255
That's also a better ROI by $129,822 over the ROI you get from the child (if we treat the child as a financial asset, which again, is not what kids are)
I mean, this is the economy and way of thinking that previous generations (boomers) taught me in my schooling and how to look at the world.
You need to earn as much money as possible, weigh your investment options, get back the biggest ROI.
Yet that same generation now is turning around and saying we should additionally be investing into the future with children, however I'm not seeing anyone presenting ROI numbers on the argument of "children as an investment"
Now I know that there can be a cultural thing if children taking over the aged care from the health systems, take the burden away from the private sectors, etc.
But at the same time, privately run for profit aged care is a huge industry (and a decent investment to get into), multi-billion dollar industry in the economy, so having more kids, taking those people away from the potential customers for the industry.
My parents, and my wife's parents raised us with the mindset that we should invest our money, grow it hard, and so that if we needed that aged care, we wouldn't be a burden on the Family (they were raised directly by Boomers, they are Gen X, we are Millennials)
I watched my grandmother go through it with my great grandmother, and it destroyed her mentally, emotionally, and physically. If I have kids, I don't want to traumatise them like that. That's not fair on them.
So what are the benefits to us, of having kids, accounting for the costs of raising them? Is there any tangible ROI other than happiness and love?
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