OPINION: O Oppositio, Where Art Thou?

In the face of Australia's most right-wing government in living memory, opposition from centre-left and centrist parties has been lacklustre at best.

^{BY LORD JAMESONSON, DEFENDER OF THE IRISH REALM}

THE latest opinion poll conducted demonstrated that should an election be held today, the government would lose two seats. But these seats would not be picked up by the opposition. Despite all the controversies and blunders of the incumbent LNP government, the same poll showed that the opposition SDP would fail to win any additional seats in parliament, putting it on par with the LNP - five all.

Where are these extra votes going? In the same poll, the crossbench would swell to five - the same number of seats held by both the LNP and SDP. A third independent would be elected (most likely u/General_Rommel in the prime minister's seat of Sydney) and the Country Labor Party and Australian Democrats would hold one set each.

The Social Democratic Party does remain the most-preferred party on primary votes, sitting at 36.8%, suffering a slight swing against it of -1.4%. Indeed, on a two-party preferred basis, the SDP remain the favourites at at 53.5%. Alarmingly, however, was the -6% swing if suffered since the previous poll. Opposition leader u/NGSpy remains preferred prime minister only on a two-candidate perspective (33.8% against the prime minister on 31.2%). Out of all parliamentarians, the Prime Minister remains on top, polling 15.6% against the Opposition leader's 13.7%. The Attorney-General is fast closing in on u/NGSpy, at 12.7%. So why, in the face of one of the most tendentious and dividing governments in living memory, is the Opposition struggling so badly?

In the face of recent major controversies, it has often been crossbench MPs (and u/General_Rommel) who have made the most noise. Take the Government's first major controversy: endorsing the re-election of US President Donald Trump. Outrage emanated from across the parliament, but it was primarily the actions of Tasmanian independent u/dyljam which saw the Government admit its error and rescind its endorsement.

When the Government announced it would ignore the results of the national anthem plebiscite and instead institute a bastardised version of Advance Australia Fair, it was again the crossbench which made the most noise: Australian Democrats leader u/Zak6858 rescinded his agreement of supply and confidence for the government (although ultimately did not vote against confidence) and Tasmanian independent u/dyljam launched a vote of no confidence in the government (seconded by the Opposition leader).

The noise outside parliament too was searing. Former independent MP and High Court justice u/General_Rommel was hot on the prime minister's heels, labeling the actions a 'travesty for our nation' and a 'denigration of our democracy'.

But for all its worth, the crossbench - despite, if this poll is replicated on polling day, taking the same number of seats as either major party - is highly unlikely to form a government of its own. It is unprecedented, and for good reason. There would exist numerous competing interests, often deep ideological chasms, and without any party holding more than one seat, there would likely be intense disagreement over who the prime minister should be (despite u/dyljam telling the National Review that he would 'love' to serve in a government lead by u/General_Rommel).

The Australian Democrats have, on the other hand, proven that they would rather work with the government than against it. I'm not one to argue for or against this principle, but it does smother any form of opposition that may arise on the part of the Dem's. It will also be a mammoth task for the minor party to gain any extra seats at the next election, on current polling. The Country Labor Party have proven they are willing to fight against the government, but their sheer size makes any impact of their opposition limited.

This brings us back to the Social Democrats. In opposition they have been floundering, and any noise made by the opposition leader has been drowned out by the crossbench and extra-parliamentary independents. This quietness has made the SDP an easy target for attack, with a new, frequent charge in conservative circles being that Mayo MP u/MattMonti is angling for the SDP leader's job. Such chatter is completely unfounded, but the sheer dominance of the LNP, combined the the SDP's incapacitation, makes such talk listened to.

If the current polling does prove true, the SDP will be forced to deal with the competing demand's of at least three crossbenchers if it wishes to form government. If any one of these is Country Labor or the AusDems, then it is likely the leader of such a party would seek a coalition (and with that, the Deputy Prime Ministership). Indeed, if this does occur, and such a party wins only one seat in parliament, it is quite possible (and only fair) that another MP providing supply and confidence would seek a coalition and a cabinet position for themselves.

This simply serves to prove the precarity which the opposition leader faces should he wish to serve as prime minister for a second time. Such a fragile coalition would likely be unproductive, and make governing extremely difficult. Instead, the opposition leader needs to take a leaf out of the book of the now-prime minister. He needs to make himself heard. He needs to get on the front foot. He needs to be willing to take a fight.

The opposition leader needs to present himself as the alternate prime minister. But he needs to act now, or he could end up falling behind even members of the prime minister's own government. And with that likely brings a second term in government for the LNP.