New Poll Finds Government Would Lose Seats If Election Was Held Today

^{BY VICE ADMIRAL JAMES JAMESONSON}

A new poll released this week shows that the government would lose two seats if an election was held today. The revelation comes after the government narrowly survived a no-confidence motion, kept in office only because of the votes of two crossbenchers.

Despite a small gain of 2.77% in the latest poll, the LNP would be on-par with the SDP on five seats if an election was held today. Meanwhile, the crossbench would augment to 5 seats, with three independents and one seat for the Australian Democrats and Country Labor Party respectively. This would make any future government even more reliant on independents and minor parties.

Despite surviving a vote of no confidence pursued by Tasmanian independent u/dyljam after the other two crossbenchers (Mr Showstealer1829 and Mr Zak6858) abstained, this news is sure to make the Prime Minister's hold on the leadership even more tenuous. The government's disastrous decision to ignore the results of the national anthem plebiscite, and then to make a concession by declaring a transitional national anthem, has already sorely wounded the LNP in the minds of the public. But the Prime Minister is also coming under increasing threat by former MP and High Court judge u/General_Rommel.

The staunch independent has been actively making himself known in the Prime Minister's electorate of Sydney, and has also been increasing his standing through a series of 'foundational essays'. In his latest piece, he calls for the construction of Australia's first high-speed rail system. This off-season campaign may very well put him in prime position to take the electorate of Sydney at the next election.

This poses a fundamental problem for the government. If the LNP does manage to get re-elected with the support of some members of the crossbench, then it is quite possible that they will be forced to supply the country with a different Prime Minister. Such a prospect would have some leading members of the LNP frothing at the mouths.

Perhaps the most obvious choice a month or so ago would have been Treasurer u/AussieConservative. A senior government official who has long been regarded as the Prime Minister's offsider, he has struggled in the polls so much so that he has even fallen behind u/Mikiboss, the Deputy Leader of the Opposition. His poor handling of the national anthem crisis is also likely to have harmed his reputation in the minds of his colleagues.

The Attorney-General u/My13InchDuck has, on the other hand, been perhaps the LNP's saving grace. A first-term MP, he has been the Government's most active proposer of legislation in the parliament. His polling has been quite astonishing, almost completely closing-in on the Opposition Leader as preferred prime minister. And he hasn't been afraid to stand against the government on matters of principle - he co-signed a bi-partisan letter calling on the government to honour the public's choice in the national anthem plebiscite.

A fresh-faced, popular and virtuous minister, this paper thinks that the Prime Minister should keep a watchful eye on the Attorney-General, who is more than a shot at becoming the LNP's next PM.