(TL;DR The Pelicans are gonna be better than a lot of people expect and are pretty deep. Maybe they trade, maybe they don’t need to. 2 seed is their ceiling and 7 seed is their floor with good health.)

There’s arguably never been a better time to be a fan of the New Orleans Pelicans. The team is fresh off a playoff berth that saw them take the #1 seeded Phoenix Suns to 6 games in a hard fought series. We witnessed Brandon Ingram ascend into the face of the franchise and the arrival of CJ McCollum has brought a level of veteran presence and professionalism not seen in years, not even mentioning his abilities on the court. Additionally, we have the return of Zion Williamson. Healthy after missing the entire last season, players and coaches alike have already lauded his abilities to score the ball in 5-on-5 scrimmages.

That’s just talking about the Big 3, who really could be considered a Big 4 including one of the top centers in the league in JV. We haven’t even mentioned Herb or the bench yet. I could go on and on about why Pelicans fans are so excited.

So I will.

In here, I’m going to break down each position group. This will include things like how many minutes I think they’ll play per game in game 1 of the season at full strength or cases where they might not start opening night but will have minutes in a role situation. It’ll also include their last season averages, and a player profile which will mostly include my thoughts on the player. I will also try to list a question, concern, or negative for each player. They’ll be listed by their respective spots on the positional rotation.

Guards:

CJ McCollum, Jose Alvarado, Devonte Graham, Dyson Daniels, Kira Lewis, Garrett Temple.

CJ McCollum (32 min) – 2022 Averages: 33.8min 24.3ppg / 5.8ast / 4.5reb / 39.4%3pm

Coach Willie Green has stated that CJ will take on starting point guard duties, but this team is unique in the fact that it has 4 players in the starting lineup that will take on playmaking duties and bringing the ball up the court. The Pelicans have enough depth that on a normal night at full strength, CJ should be seeing a little less minutes than his average last year out of luxury and not necessity. 2 minutes may not seem like much, but keeping his minutes down should keep him fresh all season. His PPG will more than likely drop due to the intro of Zion but his efficiency and three point shooting will increase with that drop, with better looks and more wide open threes. Also look for his AST numbers to take a slight increase as well. Zions gravity in a CJ PnR cannot be understated.

Question: How will he fare as the third option on a team after being number 1 or number 2 most times in his career? I’m nitpicking, I know.

Jose Alvarado (17 min) – 2022 Averages: 15.4min / 6.1ppg / 2.8ast / 1.3stl

Jose Alvarado looks to increase his minutes by almost 2 this season in which most will come as CJ comes off the court. Reports of his shooting having improved have also come out but that’s not where his true worth will come this season. I’m expecting for his assist numbers to bump up as he'll be the lead guard for the second unit and when CJ is off the court. Jose led all rookies last year in AST to TO ratio and I believe that will carry over into this year. Another bright spot will be his defense, terrorizing opposing bench guards and keeping his steal numbers up.

Question: Will Jose be able to replicate his success on the defensive side of the ball? Also, will his 3pt shooting improve?

Devonte Graham (12 min) – 2022 Averages: 28.4min / 11.9pts / 4.2ast / 34.1%3pm

Whether you like it or not, we need to see what Graham looks like in the position we brought him in for, which is to be a floor spacer and shooter. The team asked him to do a lot that he wouldn’t have been asked to do had Zion not gone down before the season. Due to the emergence of Jose as the ball handler, he won’t be asked to handle that. His shooting splits should come up from league average being on the bench unit and getting more open looks not against starters and around Zion. His defensive limitations still exist and if it doesn’t work then we have players that will take his minutes into the season and we will likely look for Graham on the trade block. I don’t believe we’ll get there and he’ll perform better in his role this season.

Concern: His shooting won’t get back to a respectable clip and his trade value goes down. A 3 year contract on a regressing shooter might be our only real financial handcuff this season.

Dyson Daniels (0 min for now but maybe 6-8min by seasons end) – 2022 G League Averages: 31.2min / 11.3ppg / 4.4ast / 6.2reb

Say that Dyson was on the Lakers since we used their pick to get him. Can you imagine how many people would be asking for him to start over Russell Westbrook? Now back in reality, it will be a luxury to have him be able to learn the offense while he possibly gets some minutes in the G League, much like Trey Murphy did for the Birmingham Squadron last year. As it stands right now, there aren’t enough minutes to go around and until he can prove that he can do more than Devonte and knows the offense, he won’t play. Do I think that halfway through the season that he might make Devonte expendable? I think it’s possible if his defense and playmaking do more for the team than Devonte’s shooting. He’ll eat garbage minutes and injury minutes for now.

Question: How long will it take for Dyson to learn the offense and get up to NBA speed? Did the G League already prep him for NBA pace?

Kira Lewis (0 min) – 2022 Averages: 14.2mpg / 5.9ppg / 2.0ast / 22.4%3pm

Kira unfortunately is injured and has not started contact activity on court yet. I don’t know if Kira has a place in this rotation as of now and will likely be a depth piece even when healthy. He seemed to be moving into his own before his injury and it was tough to see. I still think Jose keeps him off the court. He’ll eventually see maybe a few minutes due to injuries, rest, and garbage time. Could see a G League stint to get him into game shape and see what type of player he is right now.

Question: What kind of player does Kira look like right now? Barely played due to SVG and Gentry in years 1 and 2 and an injury last year.

Garrett Temple (0 Min) – 2022 Averages: 18.6mpg / 5.2ppg / 31.9%3pm / -17.9 /-

I’m not going to go really in depth here. He shouldn’t see minutes. This team would lose games just by him playing for extended stretches last season. It is really baffling how bad he was. I think it’s important to keep him around for vet leadership and his contract is an expiring, which could come in handy if this team is exploring the trade market later this season.

Negative: Garrett Temple’s on court play.

Post Preseason Game 1 Update: Seems pretty in line with what I thought. When CJ, Jose, and DG take real game minutes as well as with BI and Trey actually playing, Dyson and Temples minutes will disappear. My only issue is that we know that Temple isn’t gonna beat out anyone for a spot, so why is he even playing in these games? Give someone like Daniels more run with the starters. CJ played well, Jose looked great, and even DG looked like who we need him to be. Dyson also looked like a young player flashing his passing brilliance, good finishing at the basket, and good defense. Shot needs work, but that’ll come with time. Man does he look skinny though. He’s only 19 so it’ll be interesting to see how much taller he gets and what he looks like when he gains weight.

Forwards:

Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson, Herb Jones, Trey Murphy, Larry Nance Jr, Jaxson Hayes, Naji Marshall.

Brandon Ingram (33 min) – 2022 Averages: 34min / 22.7ppg / 5.6ast / 5.8reb / 32.7%3pm

The face of the franchise had what felt like his breakout season last year and he should only be better on the court this year. Ingram is coming off of his first playoff appearance, where he averaged almost a triple double and led the team in a hard fought series against the #1 seed. Now, for the first time in his career BI will have stability and a supporting cast ready to win. He has almost exactly the same roster, two running mates in CJ and Zion, and the same head coach from the year before. His averages for points and assists should go up with the addition of Zion, a CJ that’s familiar with the system, and the rest of the roster that now has a year of continuity under their belt. As stated with CJ, I do expect his 3pt % to increase with the addition of Zions gravity. This is his team and he should follow last season’s accomplishments with, at the very least, an All-Star appearance and another appearance in the playoffs. The Slim Reaper has arrived y'all.

Question: I’m going to have to nitpick again here. How well will he integrate with Zion? How many more 3s will he take this season and will he hit at a higher rate?

Zion Williamson (33 min) – 2020-21 Averages: 33.2min / 27ppg / 3.7ast / 7.2reb / 61.1%fgm

Zion should have a monster season that eclipses his 2020-21 season. He’s put in the work over the summer and the results are astounding to say the least. He looks healthy. His skin is clearer, his face is less full, and he looks very similar to what his body looked like during his lone season at Duke. Dude is ready to clock in and ball. My expectations are for him to play a similar amount of minutes out of luxury. We have good forward depth so he shouldn’t need to take on a lot of minutes on a nightly basis. This approach will help keep him healthy and fresh for the season. He might only mention team success and championships, but after being laughed at for a year and a half I believe he’s coming after everyone. My take is that he will lead the team in scoring, he’ll average his career highs in assists and rebounds, be in the race for the scoring title, and if this team finishes in the top 3 of the West he will be the front runner for MVP. If BI is the Face of the Franchise, Zion is the engine that’s gonna push this team into title contention. We go as far as he takes us.

Question/Concern: The big fish in the room. Will Zion stay relatively healthy? How long will it take him to integrate into the lineup?

Herb Jones (32 min) – 2022 Averages: 29.9mpg / 9.5ppg / 2.1ast / 3.8reb / 33.7%3pm

I’ve projected Herb Jones to get a 2 min increase this season. Word around the Pelicans is that the team had to ask Herb to take some time off and get out of the gym, a problem you love to have with a player going into his second year. He should see a slight decrease in PPG due to the ball being in Zion’s hands more this season, similar rebound numbers, and a slight climb in assists. His 3pm % should also improve due to him being in a starting lineup with elite options on offense to leave him open shots. He’ll just have to make those open looks count. All that is lagniappe. Herb this year should be in the conversation for DPOY or at a minimum, on an NBA All Defensive team. He’ll guard the opponent’s best player on most nights with the exception of the league’s elite centers and rare PGs. Should be an exciting sophomore season for Not on Herb.

Question: Will Herb’s 3pt shot improve? Can he replicate or top his defense from last season?

Trey Murphy (26 min) – 2022 Averages: 13.9mpg / 5.4ppg / 2.4rpg / 38.2%3pm

It’s Trigggaaaaa!!!! The vibes around Trey Murphy all offseason have been immaculate, from his workout videos, to the comments coming from his teammates, to the reports that he’s now 6’10” (!!!). He played in limited minutes for much of last year but by the end of the year, it had clicked. He was the best 3pt shooter out of all rookies in the NBA and showed signs of a good defender. My projection has him as the 6th man for this team and almost doubling the minutes he had last season. He’ll see career highs in almost every category due to that bump and his minutes with Zion should be magical with his ability to space the floor and also in the PnR game. Let’s hope his production matches the vibes, immaculate.

Question: Will Trey take the leap and become the sixth man? Will we keep getting album covers with Trey on them? I sure hope so.

Larry Nance Jr. (16 min) – 2022 Averages: 20.2mpg / 7.3ppg / 4.3reb

Larry should have a solid season coming off the bench for the Pels playing solid defense, rebounding the ball, and making high IQ decisions. He’ll give the Pelicans a lot of flexibility being able to play the 3, 4, and as a small ball 5. He won’t have flashy scoring numbers but his impacts will be felt all over the court as well as off the court. Likely the best role player we have on this team and will thrive in whatever role we put him in. Having a player like him who’ll be in Zion and BI’s ear all game telling them that the other team can’t stop them is going to be invaluable. He’ll likely see less minutes than previously thought due to the addition of Zion, and the good play over the summer by Billy. Also Congrats on the Extension!

Question: How did we get a role player like Larry in the Portland trade? Still baffles me to this day.

Jaxson Hayes (0 min on opening night, 8-12min when he does play) – 2022 Averages: 20min / 9.3ppg / 4.5ast / 61.6%fgm

As it stands right now, Jaxson is a double edge sword. When he starts at the 4 next to JV, he’s a pretty good player. He takes advantage of mismatches to other forwards due to his size and freakish athleticism. He’s able to play defense a little better due to those mismatches and even showed that he could guard smaller players when they switched on him off a pick. That kind of defense for a seven footer is not normal. Seems like a good piece right? The ghost that haunts Jax is that this all disappears when he plays off the bench. He should have the same advantages but for whatever reason he never really performs in that position. He has shown he can’t play the backup 5 with consistency and now that Billy looks to take the backup 5 spot, Jax will likely not have a spot in the rotation in a very crowded forward room. He’ll get minutes for load management, during specific in-game situations, and when one of our forwards is injured. It is very likely that unless Jax takes a leap over Nance at the 4 or Billy at the backup 5, he may end up on the trade block as it’s likely that he is looking for an extension that the Pels won’t want to pay him. All the potential in the world doesn’t mean anything if you can’t fulfill it.

Special post game 1 update: Not gonna do this for anyone else but Jax looked really really good in his minutes. Better on defense and is a mismatch nightmare. He’ll see minutes in certain game situations and matchups as well as garbage and injury minutes. Gonna be hard to keep him on the bench after seeing him in the preseason.

Concern: My concern is that he asks for a trade after not getting minutes. In some universe out there he became Giannis 2.0.

Naji Marshall (0 min) – 2022 Averages: 13.4mpg / 5.7ppg / 2.6reb / 20%3pm

The Keeper of Good Vibes likely won’t see minutes outside of injuries, load management, and in blowout situations. He’s a good player to have down your bench as he now has some playoff experience and is very integrated into the system. He also feels like he is one of those guys that embodies the city and has been an important part of the culture of the team. All of that on a contract of his size is very nice to have. Also you could categorize him as a guard but not that it matters much. Not much else to note with Naji.

Comment: Nothing to really say here. Knows what type of player he is and his role. Will be there if called upon.

Post Preseason Game 1 Update: With BI and Trey out, others were bound to get extended minutes. Jax looked like he’s playing for a contract and roster spot which is a good problem for Willie Green to have. His communication and rotations on defense were great, which is a massive improvement. Naji is still Naji, too much sauce. Zion is gonna be a monster, Herb made 2 quick 3s in the beginning of the game and looked great before he had to exit for a rib contusion. Hope he’s alright. Nance looked good in limited minutes coming back from his calf issue in camp. I’m gonna be honest, if Jax can play like he did in this game then I really have no idea what to do with the guy. Good game for the forward group outside of some Naji minutes.

Centers:

Jonas Valancunis, Billy Hernangomez

Jonas Valancunis (26 min) – 2022 Averages: 30.3mpg / 17.8ppg / 11.4rpg / 2.6ast / 36.1%3pm

I would be very confident in saying that Jonas is one of the top 7 centers in league and is somewhere from 5-7. Last year, he helped carry the weight of the team with BI before the CJ addition. Having a solid #2 option offensively as your #4 option is a crazy advantage to have. His floor spacing as the starting center is going to be invaluable, as is his ability as one of the best rebounders and THE best offensive rebounding center in the league outside of maybe Gobert. He will see a slight bump down in minutes to keep him healthy in his age 31 season as Billy has earned his minutes from his showing in Europe. The addition of Zion will also take the ball out of his hands so expect a drop in offensive production while keeping the same efficiency if not better. Less offensive responsibility also could mean that he could spend more energy on the defensive end, though he was the 10th ranked center in defensive rating last season which only 1.4 points separated him and known rim protector Clint Capella. Take that how you want, but we definitely don’t need a Myles Turner on this team like a lot of people would like next to Zion. If you can’t tell, I’m a big JV guy and have spent too much time defending him in mock trades.

Concern: Late in the season, his 3pt numbers dropped from what they were in the beginning of the season. Was his hot shooting an outlier? Can he space with Zion on the floor?

Billy Hernangomez (13 min) – 2022 FIBA Averages: 21.7mpg / 17.2ppg / 6.9reb / 1ast

Billy is the Heart and Soul of this squad. When things were looking down, it was always Billy that was mentioned as the guy that really glued the team together outside of BI. As said by David Griffin, “We refused to trade him because of what he gives the group (from a chemistry and locker-room standpoint)”. When word got out that Zion needed a second surgery on his foot, Billy was the first to have his injured teammates back amid all the rumors. He’s the type of team guy that every championship team has. Last season he went 3 weeks with DNP-Coaches Decision and had to come in and match up against MVP candidate, Joel Embiid. He dropped 29-10 on him. Then over the summer, he goes to EuroBasket and wins the MVP of the tournament. He often matched up against starting NBA centers, to include his Pelicans teammate Jonas Valancunis. Expect him to come in relief of JV mostly in the first half and third quarter with Nance or Zion taking center minutes from JV/Billy in some late game situations.

Question: Will his EuroBasket MVP translate over to NBA play?

Post Preseason Game 1 Update: JV had an ok game it felt like. Still a monster on the boards but had some shots he should’ve made, though some looked like fouls. He missed his only 3pt shot of the game which is fine but we need him shooting the rock at a decent clip to help out Zion. Billy played well in his minutes, even making a 3pt shot on a nasty pass from Dyson Daniels. Good game from the bigs, though this group will likely give up some points to centers with a good 3pt shot. To be fair, most teams will.

Closing Thoughts and a Look Ahead:

The team is coming into its own at a good time. The West is very strong and is expected to have 11 teams that are either all in or should have a case to win the West and compete in the Finals. The Pelicans have a top 2 Big 3 in the league, great depth on the bench, solid young players on cheap contracts, and still own the third most picks from now until 2027. They can develop the young guys while still having the flexibility to make a splash in the trade market.

The Pels in my mind don’t have too many holes in the roster as things stand right now. The only glaring weakness that I see is the backup 2 guard. Devonte is going to come off the bench likely for BI or Herb and will play next to Jose. That’s a very small guard lineup. I trust Jose to be able to compensate with his defensive instincts and tenacity. I don’t expect the same from Graham. If his shooting slump carries into this season and Dyson isn’t ready this year then the Pels should look outward for help. My trade targets are as follows:

Josh Hart – The Pels should at least kick the tires if the Blazers don’t win with Dame back and things turn ugly. If the Blazers blow it up, and Hart is available for the right price then the Pels could and should offer the best assets in return. He’s the type of player you want next to Jose, Trey, Nance, and Billy on the bench. Plus the vibes!! THE VIBES!!!!

Malik Beasley – An easier piece to get than Hart being on the tanking Jazz. He could be on this team today if the Pels wanted to. Brings 3pt shooting, size, decent defense, and consistency. All things you want from your 2 guard.

Josh Richardson – Josh Richardson can score the ball from 3 and brings decent defense, similar to what Beasley brings.

SGA – This is the big splash trade that feels totally unrealistic. The only way that this trade happens is if the Thunder decide to move on from him or if he asks for a trade after not wanting to lose any longer. A possible but highly unlikely trade due to the fact that he has only stated that he wants to be in OKC and win games. After going through what happened with rumors surrounding Zion, I’m not gonna doubt the man’s words until word comes out from him that he wants out. However, if a trade was requested would it take one of Murphy or Herb? Would the Thunder take salary filler and a treasure chest of picks? This also forces Herb to the bench which would hurt our defense but this team would score too high for it to matter.

Buddy Hield – I only want this trade to block the Lakers from being able to make this move. It makes our road to the playoffs easier while at the same time helping our draft capital with that Lakers swap. Hield doesn’t bring defense like I want, but there isn’t a better shooter in the league and you can’t have enough of that on a team with Zion Williamson. Imagine him and Trey dropping 3-bombs on opposing bench units. A CJ-Devonte-Buddy-TM3-Zion lineup would be interesting to say the least.

This team realistically should be a 4-7 seed with their ceiling at the 2 seed. If this team starts off hot and Zion shows no struggles of integration and no signs of rust, those projections could be blown away. Stay excited Pels 12, its gonna be a great season.

(This was my first attempt at writing anything like this, so if you have any critiques please leave a comment. Currently deployed and have a lot of free time that I want to fill with writing about the Pels. We have a lot of really talented and great people that cover this team that I wanna shoutout if you got this far. I really love the stuff done by Mason Ginsberg, Shamit, Chris Conner, SecondLineDom, ProPelsTalk, Druproductions, Oleh Kosel, Andrew Lopez, Will Guillory, Kushner, DMGrubb, NOLAJake and others that I know I forgot to mention so shoutout all them and all their hard work to cover our team. Also Shoutout Rel and Rocky. Go check them out on twitter. Not Fletcher for reasons i wont say due to rule 1 in the subreddit. I came into this trying to create something on the level of what Nick Underhill does during Saints training camp. Hope I made him proud.)

Update: Grammar