How incriminating and strongly circumstantial are videos of a white Hyundai Elantra (WHE) at and near the scene from 3.26am to 4.20am? Some argue Kohberger's car could have been mistaken for another WHE speeding from King Road at 4.20am. So how common are WHEs and how many might be expected to be driving around residential cul-de-sacs in Moscow at 4.20am? Looking at the statistics:

Elantras are not in the top 25 car models in the USA. Based on annual sales data Hyundai Elantras are 0.87% of USA cars (an example to quantify: 127,360 Elantras sold out of 14,718,973 total cars in 2021). So: 1 in 115 of all cars in the USA are Hyundai Elantras.

25.8% of cars in the USA are white. So 1 in 460 cars are white Elantras (WHE)

26% of cars in USA are in the 2011 - 2016 year range. So:

1 in 1860 cars are 2011-2016 WHEs (0.05%)

40 % of cars are from states not requiring front license plates (pro-rated by population share). So:

1 in 4650 cars are 2011-16 WHEs with no front licence (0.02%)

The combined adult population of Pullman and Moscow is 43,000. Statistics predict 10 cars in the area might fit (assuming the over-estimate that every adult has a car). 10-30 cars might fit assuming anyone could temporarily remove the front license plate from their white 2011-2016 Elantra. As an aside, specialist car magazines describe exterior differences between 2011-13 vs 2014-16 Elantras as "minimal" and "barely noticeable".

When police mentioned > 20,000 Elantras they possibly based that on all Elantras in surrounding states. At early stages they could not assume a local perp and maybe wanted to convey the enormity of their task given criticisms of the investigation.

Anyone could invent specific scenarios involving 2 WHEs driving around residential areas of Moscow at 4.00am. The absence of any video of a second WHE while "suspect car 1" is on video in at least 21 locations during the early hours of Nov 13th consistent with travel between Kohberger's apartment and King Road also indicates how unlikely a second WHE explanation is. If we assume very conservatively 2% of cars are driven at 4.00am (traffic census figures suggest this is closer to 0.5%) and even if we assume WHEs might be over represented in student towns as relatively cheap models:

The gross statistics suggest it is incredibly unlikely Kohberger's car was mistaken for another WHE driving in the same area at the time. The videos of a car matching Kohberger's at and near King Road are statistically very strong circumstantial incrimination.

Links to sources of statistics:

https://www.forbes.com/advisor/car-insurance/car-ownership-statistics/

https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2022-us-vehicle-sales-figures-by-model/

https://www.newsweek.com/most-popular-car-models-america-2020-1579462

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimgorzelany/2022/10/04/heres-why-the-most-popular-car-colors-are-also-the-dullest/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vehicle_license_plates_of_the_United_States

https://www.autoevolution.com/cars/hyundai-elantra-2014.html#aeng_hyundai-elantra-2014-18-6at-145-hp