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How accurate is the cell phone location data?
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The PCA mentions three types of information about the location of Kohberger's phone during his 13 visits to Moscow before and after the murders: (1) His phone connecting to a tower that serves areas such as King Road (2) phone location information from his cellular service provider, AT&T (3) location information calculated from cell tower data (CSLI) by the FBI CAST unit. Some people conflate these as all the same, and assume phone locations from cellular data is therefore very inaccurate. The PCA distinguishes info on phone location based on tower connection vs location information from AT&T and from FBI CAST calculated locations based on cell tower data. This is quite a detailed/ lengthy post - please skip to tl/dr or skip over entirely if this is not an area of the case you are interested in.

PCA p16: Distinguishes location data from AT&T, FBI CAST vs single tower utilisation

Overviewing the three types of phone location data mentioned in the PCA and their accuracy:

(1) Single Cell Tower Connection - A phone connecting to a tower means that tower has the best signal (often closest to the phone). Data from a single tower is not precise but can give the rough area a phone was in and a direction relative to the tower. Towers are not single transceivers servicing a 360° surround, but are made up of multiple transceivers which each service 120° to 60° segments. Data about time for phone signals to reach a tower and which transceiver was connected gives rough position of a phone within a segment. When multiple tower data is used the phone can be located accurately, from two towers or more.

Simple Overview of Cell Tower Triangulation - From Interesting Engineering:

\"Interesting Engineering\" - overview of single tower sector and tower triangulation

This map shows King Road within the transceiver sector of the closest AT&T tower (situated on the UoI Theophilus Tower building); it also shows that locations mentioned in the PCA are distinct based on cellular data (e.g. Farm Rd, Kohberger traffic stop) being in separate transceiver sectors. The 24 hour supermarket often mentioned as an explanation for Kohberger's frequent very late night trips to the area is also in a different transceiver sector, so could not be confused with King Road:

https://preview.redd.it/74gazydnjozb1.jpg?width=888&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6c9ab0d95b750686690f79071cb4a099b8820d56

UoI Theophilus Tower - AT&T \"Tower\" closest to King Rd, transceiver array on each face

For trilateration of cell tower data, there are 3 AT&T Towers in Moscow, 5 AT&T Towers including those close around the town, and 28 towers within 3 miles of King Road. Of those 28 towers, several are municipal and service multiple cellular providers. Towers are mapped and listed on links here from CellMapper and AntennaSearch. Map: 28 Towers within 3 miles of 1122 King Road AntennaSearch website, 3 mile radius of King Road : Link to AntennaSearch website and map

The connection of Kohberger's phone to a tower in Moscow on November 14th seems to be included in the PCA in the context of his pattern of at least 14 visits to Moscow stopping abruptly on the morning of November 13th. It is not stating a location calculation for the phone. A phone in the area between Pullman and Moscow might connect to a Moscow tower as the closest without the phone being in Moscow.

(2) Information from AT&T

FBI CAST sets out information available from AT&T to LE and notes AT&T retain tower data for 7 years. AT&T give LE phone location information based on cell tower triangulation:

https://preview.redd.it/kdhig441oozb1.jpg?width=1308&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=30fc5dc1887fda526840133b9c90324b037c8c8d

https://preview.redd.it/urp8g6d3oozb1.jpg?width=1307&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1347fa035642c7eccae9ab0b247826a7b141a298

AT&T have two proprietary systems of interest: "NELOS High Precision Location Information" and the Secure Family® service.

AT&T "Family Secure" service is a service to track the location of phones and can utilise both GPS and/or network cell tower positioning. While an overview of the service notes GPS is of course more accurate, non-GPS location is discussed for situations where GPS is not available e.g. dense urban settings or for non-paired devices. Location radius of 150 metres (495 feet) for non-GPS cellular network location is referenced as well as comparison of network vs GPS radius location accuracies.

The NELOS system is patented - AT&T patents for NELOS location system after 3G refer to location accuracy of under 100 metres. Case study examples from 2010 (3G) refer to accuracies within 300m.

(3) Information from Cell Towers (CSLI) used by FBI CAST

Looking at independent research institutes, academics, current US FCC regulations and other high profile court cases to review info on cell phone location accuracy:

Recent high profile cases also illustrate how cell tower data can accurately locate suspects/ missing people:

  • A Professor of Telecommunications Engineering testified in Coroners court in 2021 that localisation of a phone from tower data was accurate to within 78 metres. Prof. Aruna Sereviratne, Chair of Telecommunications at NSW University, visiting Professor at Universities in UK, France, a consultant for Telstra and British Telecomm, and Director of the Australian Communications Technology Centre of Excellence. Coroner's court proceeding are solemn, under oath with perjury penalty but have no defence vs prosecution adversarial dynamics. Link to case: Theo Hayez - Coroner Court 78 metres phone accuracy
  • The Long Island Serial Killer (LISK) suspect Rex Heuermann was arrested in July 2023 based in large part on historical cell phone location data which co-located his mobile phone with various burner mobile phones that had been used for social media contact with victims. The burner phones also showed synchronous movement with his known phone from his Long Island home to an office building in New York.

So, research institutes, academics specialising in telecoms electronic engineering, cell tower equipment manufacturers, regulators and recent court cases all put location accuracy around 100 metres. Data from AT&T has a range of 150 metres for current internal and customer systems, up to to 300m for much older pre-3G systems, Plotting this type of accuracy margin for King Road shows that Kohberger would have been located in the residential area, and 100-150m accuracy firmly locates him within the cul-de-sac. Even at 400 metres there are no businesses, shops, bars of any kind, the only one being the Sigma Chi frat at c 400 metres:

King Rd: 200m area [left], 100-300m areas [right]. No businesses/ shops in the area

TL/DR Summary:

  • AT&T High Precision Location Information "NELOS" system and "Secure Family®" phone locator service reference phone location accuracy from cellular data within 150m. Older examples from NELOS pre-3G reference location accuracy of c 300m. AT&T supply this type of information to LE in response to warrant.
  • Research institutes and independent academics estimate cellular phone location accuracies within 50-100 metres
  • Court testimony and high profile recent cases have referenced cell phone location with error margin within 80 metres
  • FCC Regulations require cellular providers to be able to locate phones within 50 metres in case of emergency, from cellular data
  • Most data sources put 4G/ 5G cellular location accuracy around 100 metres, which would locate Kohberger within the King Rd cul-de-sac. Wider 200-300m ranges would still locate Kohberger in the King Rd/ Queen Rd residential area where there are no businesses, shops, bars.

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