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Ok, I've been brewing again, and I've spiked a 5-0. No idea how, maybe by the end of this post we will know the answer! Lets start with the decklist ( u/Bamzing feel free to name it).
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/3861024#online
I'll start by saying that the first 3 matches of my league can be caught at https://twitch.tv/daviusminimus. There will be a TLDR at the bottom for those that need it!
I was going to write about the individual cards, but it would take a post on all it's on. So I made a mini primer of sorts (just card discussion). Follow this link if you are interested in the reasoning behind specific cards:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1sCGdvwKQNRqYkqmVhvpQAXxJwDKD9gZCuOQdP_ASvzM/edit?usp=sharing
I'm going to discuss the league though! Enjoy:
Round 1 vs Amulet - G1 Blood Moon on t3, G2 opponent miscounts on Turn 3, pacts up azusa but can't titan and loses to their own pact. Easy when your opponents help you out!
Round 2 vs Affinity - G1 I resolve a T3 zur but i'm on the back foot straight away. We are on the draw and at the end of their T4, they have 22 power. Zur grabs a removal spell and we cast a skyclave plus Hierarch to chump with. They keep spitting out free 4/4s and Zur keeps picking up Detention Sphere. Eventually we grab Yorion to "upgrade" our sphere hits and put some power down, and Assault Formation does the rest.
G2 is a lot easier since we have a SB stacked for a MU like this. We T2 Evo up a Collector Ouphe, and the rest is pretty easy from there.
Round 3 vs GW Heliod - We use a mix of Skyclaves and Teferi's to keep the board fairly clear, they deal themselves a good amount of damage and the skyclaves keep chipping in. Then the opp goes for a T6 Walking Ballista x=3 and we Dress Down to just kill it. We then use Assault Formation to make Wall of Blossoms hit for lethal.
G2 We T2 Brain Maggot (on the draw) and take their spike feeder, leaving them with heliod in hand and heliod in play. They rip Coco on their T3 and hit feeder conclave mentor and win on the spot.
G3 Goes much longer. I have Dress Down but I'm never sure if I should hold it up or play out my cards, always scared of the combo. It slows me down a lot. We Dress Down in response to Coco, and just take our beats. However, we rip solitary confinement off the top, and then Evo up a Lurrus. That lets us play Dress Down on our own end step each turn (and draw a card) which we can then discard to the confinement tax. We have Yorion as a very slow clock. We're in trouble if they find path, or coco hits skyclave, but we beat everything else since Dress Down turns off their creatures in their turn. They don't find an answer and we win!
Round 4 vs UR Food (??) - Game 1 we get beat up bad by Emry Urza spellbombs etc. Pretty easy W for our opp.
G2 Opp mulls to 4 but we keep a bad 7 (3 dorks, 3 lands, solitary confinement). Veil of Summer protects Zur from Asmo, Stony Silence comes down, and we win.
G3 we naturally draw stony in our opener, and the opp scoops before we ever have a clock (turn 4).
Round 5 vs Jund - G1 there's some back n forth, and then the opp scoops on t5 - assumingly they flood, but we haven't really much going on either. We take it!
G2 we keep a hand with double veil of summer, but it doesnt matter. They have a creature-heavy hand and I never really get going. They overrun me with goyfs, crushers and BBEs.
G3 by t4, we're hellbent with voice reflector mage wall in play, and opp has Kroxa in bin and 3 cards in hand. We pick up Yorion and pass. Opp plays BBE and misses (inquisition) and we play Yorion to get some value. Opp kills Yorion, I swing and my Mage trades with BBE. At this stage, I know the opp has Goyf and ragavan in hand, as well as Kroxa in the bin that they can play. I only have Voice Wall in play. So it feels like we're about to lose... we go wall into wall into lurrus, but with nothing in the GY to pick up. We have no real clock going though the opp is down to 5. I still dont think we're good here, since they can get 2-3 creatures into play and have us down to 10 ourselves (kroxa will deal with that quickly). But, they scoop! I've no idea why, but I'm happy about it!
TLDR: My results so far have been pretty great. In 3 leagues, I've gone 3-2, 4-1 and 5-0. However, the 3-2 could easily have been 4-1, and my list was pretty unrefined for the meta. Having said that, 2 of my wins have been via clock, and I've had my opponents misplay and even conceed early when playing this deck. You will gain a little by playing a rogue deck, but you have to be able to play it well. This is a tricky list to play, but I think that makes it fun! The deck will never be Tier 1, and my gut tells me it's slightly weaker than Enigmatic Incarnation, which isn't exactly at the top of Tier 2 either. So Zur should be seen as a semi-competitive deck that's a lot of fun to pilot and build, rather than something to take to a GP!
I'll try respond to every comment on here, so ask away!
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