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In the aftermath of a turbulent couple of weeks in Westminster, The Times commissioned polling looking into how the main parties are faring in six constituencies across the country.
Highland and Grampian
Party | 29 April | General Election | /- |
---|---|---|---|
CON | 35.03% | 37.05% | 2.02 |
LIB | 23.22% | 39.16% | -15.94 |
LAB | 20.99% | N/A | N/A |
LPUK | 7.95% | N/A | N/A |
DRF | 5.03% | 19.85% | -14.82 |
LL | 4.61% | 20.63% | -16.02 |
TPM | 2.73% | N/A | N/A |
GRN | 0.43% | N/A | N/A |
A seat in the traditional Liberal Democrat heartlands, Highlands and Grampian still manages to serve up interesting battles in each election, and last year's was no exception as the Lib Dems managed to squeak in ahead of the Tories by only two percentage points. Today's polling, however, seems to show a huge drop for the Lib Dems, although this is mitigated by the potential for Labour support in the form of an endorsement, which would realise another ten points on top. But given events in the last couple of weeks that is no sure thing and the Tories will be pleased to see a modest rise here on their return to Government.
The apparent collapse of the DRF and LL vote may also be attributed to the endorsement effect, as neither Labour nor LPUK ran in this constituency in the last general election. Even so, those parties will hope their lack of real core support is not reflected across the company.
Northamptonshire and Rutland
Party | 29 April | General Election | /- |
---|---|---|---|
CON | 40.87% | 43.68% | -2.81 |
LAB | 29.92% | 40.03% | -10.11 |
LPUK | 13.61% | 10.49% | 3.12 |
DRF | 4.79% | 5.81% | N/A |
LD | 4.28% | N/A | N/A |
TPM | 3.46% | N/A | N/A |
LL | 2.35% | N/A | N/A |
GRN | 0.73% | N/A | N/A |
Another strong showing from the Tories, who have dropped a couple of percentage points but are handily holding off their nearest rivals. While Labour ran the Tories close in the last election, the weakened state of both their own vote and that of their potential allies means that this is looking like a fairly safe Tory hold next time out. LPUK see modest gains here, but even if they were inclined to pull out of the race and endorse Labour we would expect to see an increased Tory majority.
West Yorkshire
Party | 29 April | General Election | /- |
---|---|---|---|
LAB | 31.89% | 36.86% | -4.97 |
CON | 26.47% | N/A | N/A |
LPUK | 25.52% | 44.64% | -19.12 |
LIB | 7.56% | N/A | N/A |
DRF | 4.61% | 18.51% | -13.9 |
TPM | 2.22% | N/A | N/A |
LL | 1.19% | N/A | N/A |
GRN | 0.54% | N/A | N/A |
West Yorkshire was a three-horse race in the last election. While the DRF put in a good showing last time - scooping up nearly 20 percent of the vote - they'll be very disappointed in the near 14 point hit they've taken in this poll, which is possibly reflective of their role in the coalition negotiation debacle last week. However, of potentially more interest is how in the next election this may become a three-horse race with different competitors as the seat's incumbents slip to third in the polls but are still only six percent behind the leaders.
The nature of general elections make it tricky to divine how constituents will vote when and if their preferred party pulls out of a race, but this constituency is shaping up as real treat of a seat where any of Labour, the Tories or LPUK could win and it's unlikely any will want to pull out of the contest without an extremely good reason.
South Yorkshire
Party | 29 April | General Election | /- |
---|---|---|---|
LAB | 38.95% | 36.11% | 2.84 |
LPUK | 25.78% | 38.6% | -12.82 |
CON | 19.51% | N/A | N/A |
LIB | 7.19% | N/A | N/A |
DRF | 3.82% | N/A | N/A |
TPM | 2.84% | N/A | N/A |
LL | 1.61% | N/A | N/A |
GRN | 0.31% | N/A | N/A |
Like its fellow Yorkshire seat, South Yorkshire was also a three-horse race last election, where an energetic campaign from /u/model-trev galvanised both Labour and LPUK into performing strongly in this closely-fought constituency. This was recognised by the voting public, 86 percent of whom turned out to cast their votes. In the end, LPUK held a two points majority over Labour, thanks in part to backing from the local Tories. And we can see here what that backing was worth, as LPUK, despite holding the seat, see a nearly 13 point drop. The Tories aren't far behind on 19 percent, but with only half the support of Labour they may choose to back LPUK in the next election, where this contest promises again to provide a photo finish.
Cornwall and Devon
Party | 29 April | General Election | /- |
---|---|---|---|
CON | 27.86% | 35.02% | -7.16 |
LIB | 23.02% | 36.24% | -13.22 |
LAB | 18.95% | N/A | N/A |
LPUK | 18.23% | 1.53% | 16.7 |
TPM | 6.24% | 27.21% | -20.97 |
DRF | 3.06% | N/A | N/A |
LL | 1.99% | N/A | N/A |
GRN | 0.63% | N/A | N/A |
Another Liberal Democrat heartland seat - and like Highland and Grampian, one that usually sees them facing the Tories - sees some topsy-turvy polling suggesting very interesting times ahead. Both the Lib Dems and the Tories suffer here, and this is either a symptom of the end of their governing coalition or an artefact of endorsements last time out. What's most interesting, however, is the complete collapse of the TPM vote - who ran a very strong campaign in the last election - and the huge rise in LPUK's support.
The Tories, Lib Dems and LPUK are strong in the West Country and usually one would expect all three to run here as they did last time. However, if LPUK were to support the Tory contest there is a real chance that even with Labour and TPM support the Lib Dems could lose this seat.
Shropshire and Staffordshire
Party | 29 April | General Election | /- |
---|---|---|---|
CON | 34.45% | 41.85% | -7.4 |
LAB | 21.4% | N/A | N/A |
LPUK | 21.29% | 15.55% | 5.74 |
LIB | 12.34% | 15.29% | -2.95 |
DRF | 5.7% | 27.31% | -21.61 |
LL | 2.36% | N/A | N/A |
TPM | 2.01% | N/A | N/A |
GRN | 0.44% | N/A | N/A |
The Tories scored a convincing victory here and hold a 14 point majority over the DRF, who put in a surprisingly strong showing. Unfortunately for the DRF, however, we see yet another collapse in support. This may in part be due to these figures taking into account Labour votes when Labour didn't stand last time, but this must be concerning for the DRF leadership. We also see another modest drop in Tory and Lib Dem support, which is perhaps manifested in LPUK seeing an equally modest, but useful, rise of five points. Even with Labour polling at 21 percent, and with the post-no confidence vote slump taking effect, we would still expect the Tories to hold this seat with a reduced majority.
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