Last time, we talked about the nine most marginal seats in GEXI. We may talk another time about the safest seats in the country in another article, but today we’ll be looking at the national picture for the 50 constituency seats in Westminster, and what this reveals - or doesn’t reveal - about how parties target constituents.

We have two graphs for you:

• This graph shows where the constituency seats were in GEX, and where they’ve ended up in GEXI.
• And this graph shows the same, but between GEIX and GEX.

Conservative comeback

In GEX, the Conservative Party was reduced from a dizzying high of 21 constituency seats to just 9 when they lost five seats to the Liberal Democrats. However, in this election we saw the Tories surge back up to 17 constituency seats, thanks to a typically restrained and professional campaign. They regained some of the seats they lost in GEX, like Cambridgeshire - by a huge margin - and Bedfordshire and Hertfordshire, and claimed the scalp in the formerly Liberal Democrat safe seat of Devon and Cornwall.

Also of note is the Tories took three seats from the Classical Liberals. Of course, we all know about the drama in Cumbria and Lancashire North, but Essex and North Yorkshire also fell to the Tories with both campaigns featuring strangely subdued showings from their Classical Liberal incumbents. Indeed, Essex saw some appreciable swing, with the Tories now holding a lead of over 150,000 votes.

Constituency elections are naturally cyclical, with parties in Government for the previous term often demonstrating an electoral slump - the Tories and Labour both showed this in GEX - but we’re sure that the Conservatives will be deservedly very pleased with their mighty showing this election.

Liberals switch targets

It is striking, however, that while the two liberal parties lost a combined total of six seats to the Tories, neither party saw a significant reduction in their seat totals, with the Liberal Democrats finding themselves two seats down from GEX, and the Classical Liberals unchanged.

The Classical Liberals, as we discussed above, lost three seats to the Tories and in fact lost half of their constituency seats from GEX. This was accompanied by a bizarre absence in key constituencies like Essex and Norfolk and Suffolk - seats they could have held - and the result certainly looks alarming. But in the final reading, the Classical Liberals lost no seats at all; they hold only four constituency seats, but trebled their constituency total. This seemed to have been a deliberate ploy from the Classical Liberals, who no doubt were in the same post-Government slump that afflicts all parties fortunate enough to form an executive, and therefore had to concentrate what resources they had on the areas they could most succeed. Indeed, their leader responded to the Times’ criticism of their campaign in Norfolk and Suffolk on Twitter, by saying:

we made a deliberate choice to translate from a fptp focus to a list focus, and we held all our seats so I’d call it a success

Whether or not that is post-hoc rationalisation we cannot say, but the results, in a way, speak for themselves.

The Liberal Democrats meanwhile did not hold on to all their seats, but, given the way previous Governing parties have gone, they can be somewhat happy with their 13 seats. However, the loss of strong liberal seats - particularly the hammering they received in Cambridgeshire and the shock loss in Devon and Cornwall - will not go down well among the party faithful, even if the damage was limited elsewhere in the country.

Where the Liberal Democrats did succeed is in taking a similar tack to the Classical Liberals, which is to focus energy where they already had momentum, and for the Liberal Democrats this was Wales, where they took both seats. Glamorgan and Gwent may have been a close race, but the result in Mid and North Wales is a much clearer victory.

It remains to be seen whether this method of very deliberately targeting seats, or regions, and abandoning others, will cause unnecessary restrictions on these parties in six months’ time. At some point, both parties will simply need to roll the dice.

All’s well on the Libertarian front

In GEX, the Libertarian Party shot from one constituency seat to eight; not since the formation of the Classical Liberals have we seen such upstarts bully their way onto the constituency map, and even then the comparison is not fair. The Classical Liberals were led by the former-UKIP leader and contained many seasoned politicians. This was not the case for the Libertarian Party at the time, which makes their rise all the more remarkable.

This time out, the progress was steadier, and combined with gains in list seats this election has been a success for the Libertarian Party. Not quite the stormer of last time, but to hold six of eight seats and exchange two more means that we can now say that the Libertarian Party has cemented itself as a serious and formidable presence in Westminster, with several solid safe seats to fall back on if their time in Government becomes tricky.

Regional parties slip back (and how the Greens missed an opportunity)

Let’s start with Plaid Cymru. They’ve not had a good couple of months. Firstly, they got trounced in the Welsh Assembly elections, where the Welsh Liberals took four of the nine seats on offer, while Wales’ only nationalist party managed only three. They also lost several MPs to activity reviews in Westminster, which the liberals, Labour and Tories gleefully mentioned on social media at every opportunity.

And all this was while they held four of the five Westminster seats on offer on the back of an exceptional performance in GEX. Clearly, Wales was having a change of heart.

This time, it really showed. Glamorgan and Gwent could’ve gone one of four ways, but the way three other parties managed to eat into Plaid’s vote - which was a 160,000 vote lead - will cause worry at party HQ. The story’s similar in Mid and North Wales, where Plaid were convincingly beaten into second place - losing by 50,000 - after a very close race in GEX. At to top it off, Plaid won only one seat on the list. A poor showing from them.

However, at least Plaid Cymru still exist. The SNP merged into the Green Party during last term, which, of course, gave the Green Party two extra seats, in Highland and Grampian, and Clydeside. We would have expected, therefore, the Green Party to become a real presence in Scotland - as they are in Holyrood - and hold at least one of those seats. In the end, they lost both, one to Labour and one to the Tories, which means any momentum the Green Party might have expected from absorbing the one of the largest Westminster party in Scotland disappeared within one election. What’s even more worrying for the Green Party is they didn’t even gain a list seat in Scotland, and therefore there is now no nationalist presence in Westminster.

Some of you might be wondering what the fuss is about; Green Party vote share didn’t suffer massively during this election, and they remain on five constituency seats. But our point is that the Green Party really ought to be on at least six constituency seats, with much more presence in Scotland. In short, their absorption of the SNP has achieved nothing for them or Scottish nationalists.

Are Labour labouring?

In GEIX, Labour held 15 constituency seats. Then they went down to a mere four. Now they’re at nine.

While not exactly grim reading - Labour are strong on the lists - it does mean that, essentially, the UK’s traditional “other” big party hasn’t bounced back from its time in Government with the Tories. What’s interesting is that most Labour gains came from parties who didn’t care that much about defending the seat - like the Classical Liberals - or from parties that don’t exist anymore - SNP and NUP. Sure, they’re definitely gains, but this is hardly a comeback. We’re sure those in Labour HQ are pleased with their gains, up to 17 from 15, but we can’t help but think that anything below 20 is an underperformance for a Labour Party that wants to lead Government coalitions.

More is needed from the Labour Party to get beyond 17, as they can’t keep relying on other parties underperforming to boost their numbers. In short, they must stop treading water.

One fact illustrates this: Labour haven’t taken a seat from the Tories since GEIX.