Now that the dust has settled on a fascinating eleventh MHoC general election, over the next few days The Times will bring you analysis of the election results.

Today we’ll be looking at the constituencies where the winning party in a constituency has a lead of 5 percentage points or fewer. These are the truly marginal constituencies and the battlegrounds where policies and soundbites will fight until the twelfth election in six months’ time.

Here is a list of all constituencies by percentage point lead, and you’ll see we have nine constituencies to discuss.

Cumbria and Lancashire North

Winning candidate: /u/infernoplato

Winning party: Conservative Party

Lead: 0.09% over Classical Liberals

Previous results:

• GEX: Classical Liberals (26.3% lead over Green Party)
• GEIX: Conservative Party (coin toss over Classical Liberals)
• GEVIII: Classical Liberals (22.3% lead over Conservative Party)

This is the UK’s classic marginal seat, particularly after several recounts and eventual coin toss in GEIX.

The seat has flipped between two parties in the last four elections, with the people of Cumbria and Lancashire North content to alternative between the Tories and the Classical Liberals, and, of course, alternate between two of Westminster’s political heavyweights in /u/infernoplato and /u/Duncs11.

/u/infernoplato drew plaudits in the GEIX campaign - in reducing a 22 point Classical Liberal lead - for his imaginative and energetic campaigning, and has apparently realised a similar achievement this time around by reducing what was a 34 point deficit after GEX, when, of course, the Green Party overtook the Tories in this constituency.

One thing to note for this election is that only three parties took part, with most of the other major national parties lining up behind the two main candidates; but even a stronger than expected showing from Climate Rebellion couldn’t distract from MHoC’s mercurially close race.

Tyne and Wear

Winning candidate: /u/pugglet_97

Winning party: Classical Liberals

Lead: 0.84% over Green Party

Previous results:

• GEX: Green Party (1.1% lead over Classical Liberals)
• GEIX: Green Party (1.3% lead over National Unionist Party)
• GEVIII: Green Party (18.6% lead over Labour Party)

Tyne and Wear is a microcosm of one or two trends we’ve noticed during this election.

The first is the decline of the Green Party. It was not so long ago that Tyne and Wear was a relatively safe seat for the Greens, and they’ve had to fight hard in the last two elections to fight off challenges from the NUP and the Classical Liberals.

The second is the increasing preference among parties to form into blocs and endorse candidates from other parties who may defeat a rival party. Or, in other words, Tyne and Wear had only two candidates, with most other parties lining up behind either the Classical Liberal or Green Party candidate.

In the event the Green Party lost their seat by a smaller margin than their lead in the previous election. The Green campaign was surprisingly subdued, especially given that the Classical Liberals threw everything at the constituency and it became apparent early on that this was a big target for them. There were also the votes of the National Unionists to be won, who were strong in the last two elections but have since disbanded and did not contest the seat this time. Perhaps the Green Party became complacent.

The margin of victory was perhaps smaller than expected, but no doubt the Classical Liberals will be happy at turning this long-time Green Party seat. It remains to be seen whether the Green Party can reverse its decline and retake Tyne and Wear next time around.

South East London

Winning candidate: /u/fartoomuchpressure

Winning party: Labour Party

Lead: 1.63% over Conservative Party

Previous results:

• GEX: Labour Party (0.8% over Classical Liberals)
• GEIX: Labour Party (21.8% over National Unionists)
• GEVIII: Green Party (5.4% over National Unionists)

Interestingly, the Labour Party in fact increased their lead in South East London, albeit this time over the Conservative Party rather than the Classical Liberals. And down from a 21 point lead in GEIX.

And this is yet another seat with only two candidates taking part with, again, most other major parties lining up behind either the Labour or the Tory candidate. This contrasts strongly with the GEVIII campaign, where no fewer than six parties took part, with five of those parties gaining between 14 and 25% of the vote. Given this contrast, the denizens of South East London may now feel let down by this particular manifestation of first past the post voting.

It must be said that campaigning from both candidates was pretty dire, with neither making a notable appearance and instead relying on visits from colleagues in neighbouring constituencies. This was reflected in a poor turnout, and perhaps also reflected in the constituents, on the whole, plumping for the status quo in keeping a Labour Party MP in a seat they’ve held for the previous two elections.

Central London

Winning candidate: /u/TheOWOTriangle

Winning party: Labour Party

Lead: 2.03% over Classical Liberals

Previous results:

• GEX: Classical Liberals (13.2% over Labour Party)
• GEIX: Labour Party (37.5% over Conservative Party)
• GEVIII: Communist Party (7.2% over Labour Party)

After the Classical Liberals’ stunning win in GEX, the Labour Party have wrested back control of Central London, which has long been held by left-of-centre parties, back to the halcyon days of the Communist Party.

This seat somewhat bucks the trend we saw in South East London and Tyne & Wear by actually increasing its candidate count this time around, from two to three.

The Classical Liberals hit this constituency hard, just as we saw in Tyne & Wear, but couldn’t hold on in the face of a solid campaign from Labour who arguably have a larger base in this particular part of London, therefore making the Classical Liberals’ job in merely holding the seat correspondingly more difficult.

We also saw a good performance from the Conservative Party - much improved since that distant second in GEIX - that may turn this seat into a three-way marginal seat next time.

Upper Severn

Winning candidate: /u/WhatIsACarrotAnyway

Winning party: Labour Party

Lead: 2.26% over Libertarian Party

Previous results:

• GEX: Libertarian Party (13.9% over One Love)
• GEIX: Labour Party (15.1% over Conservative Party)
• GEVIII: Conservative Party (32.2% over Green Party)

This seat seemed to signal some winds of change in GEX, when the Westminster upstarts, the Libertarian Party, took the seat convincingly from the Labour Party, who finished 9000 votes behind One Love in third place.

This time, however, the Labour Party reasserted itself on a seat it last held in GEIX with a solid if unspectacular campaign that did enough to loosen the Libertarian Party’s grip on the seat.

Again, we have seen fewer candidates here than in previous elections, with the obvious - but not necessarily correct - conclusion that the absence of One Love helped the Labour Party make up its 15 point deficit on the Libertarians, as the constituents of Upper Severn vote for the party that is vaguely closest to their point of view.

Glamorgan and Gwent

Winning candidate: /u/Ruijormar

Winning party: Liberal Democrats

Lead: 2.32% over Plaid Cymru

Previous results:

• GEX: Plaid Cymru (25% over Liberal Democrats)
• GEIX: Plaid Cymru (11.9% over Labour Party)
• GEVIII: Green Party (18.3% over Plaid Cymru)

This is the seat that bucked the trend we’ve seen elsewhere in this election. We saw six candidates, with five very strong campaigns, and the top four parties separated by only five percentage points.

To illustrate this, let’s look at the Labour Party’s figures. They came fourth here, but were still a mere 4.4% behind the Liberal Democrats. That’s 19.2% of the vote against 23.6% of the vote, with two parties in between. Very close indeed. This seat has seen a great deal of term-time drama for its candidates, with the Welsh Assembly’s First Minister running for Labour, the Plaid Cymru leader being criticised for his lack of participation in Westminster debates and the Liberal Democrats smarting from their exit from Government weeks before the election.

All the parties campaigned hard in this seat, with high visibility from candidates and visitors alike. On the night, the Liberal Democrats nudged into the lead to take the seat, possibly managing to ride on their success in the recent Senedd elections and obscure their difficulties in Westminster in the previous term.

Norfolk and Suffolk

Winning candidate: /u/PM-ME-SPRINKLES

Winning party: Labour Party

Lead: 2.95% over Conservative Party

Previous results:

• GEX: Classical Liberals (27.8% over Libertarian Party)
• GEIX: Labour Party (1.4% over Classical Liberals)
• GEVIII: Conservative Party (36.6% over Labour Party)

The Classical Liberals spent one election turning this seat from a Conservative safe seat into a marginal Labour Party seat, then in the following election they won a massive 28 point lead.

In this election? They didn’t stand. In fact, only two parties stood, the Labour Party and the Conservative Party (who themselves once held a massive lead here). Why the Classical Liberals didn’t stand here is not at all obvious, as they ought to have been strong here and it was certainly a seat they could defend.

The winner in GEX was /u/cdocwra, their former leader who departed the party and the Government under something of a cloud, so perhaps the Classical Liberals feared an electoral backlash on that basis. But as we saw in Glamorgan and Gwent, term-time difficulty does not necessarily translate into losing - or not gaining - a seat.

So in the end the constituents of Norfolk and Suffolk were left with a binary choice between parties who finished a distant third and fourth in GEX.

A strange situation, and we wouldn’t bet against another curious candidate list next time around.

Birmingham, Solihull and Coventry

Winning candidate: /u/Vladthelad123

Winning party: Liberal Democrats

Lead: 3.72% over Libertarian Party

Previous results:

• GEX: Libertarian Party (0.7% over National Unionists)
• GEIX: Labour Party (11.6% over Conservative Party)
• GEVIII: Green Party (2.3% over Labour Party)

Birmingham has a long and storied history in two things: being safe for nobody, and being marginal for everybody.

In short, this is a seat most parties feel they can win.

After a surprise term-time by-election victory in the neighbouring Black Country, the Liberal Democrats clearly felt they could win Birmingham and targeted it appropriately. The Libertarian Party ran a predictably spirited campaign in response while /u/akc8, for New Britain, also put a shift in, finishing only 3 points behind LPUK in third place.

This is also another constituency where the absence of the NUP has left a big gap in the electoral map, although this was perhaps balanced by the absence of both the Green Party and Labour on the ballot. All three parties were recently popular.

In summary, all three candidates campaigned hard here and gave the constituency much food for thought, and in the end the result was, very predictably, very marginal. Who would bet against another change next time?

Hampshire South

Winning candidate: /u/zombie-rat

Winning party: Green Party

Lead: 4.62% over Conservative Party

Previous results:

• GEX: Green Party (2.6% over Liberal Democrats)
• GEIX: Conservative Party (2.1% over Green Party)
• GEVIII: Conservative Party (16.7% over Green Party)

While Hampshire South makes it onto our list, it’s worth noting that this is the least marginal the seat has been since GEVIII. But as the winner is still within 5 points of second place, that isn’t saying a great deal.

This is one of the very few Green-Tory marginal seats in the country, and may well be the only remaining one. But the Green Party leader /u/zombie-rat successfully defended his seat against a resurgent Conservative vote that was beaten into third place in GEX.

The candidate list proves to be interesting reading, too. The Liberal Democrats were strong here last time, but clearly bowed out in favour of the Green candidate, just as Labour have done. The Tories, meanwhile, had to duke it out with both the Classical Liberals and the Libertarian Party for votes, which almost certainly bolstered the Green Party’s own vote share and ensured they held the seat they’ve been chasing since GEIX.