“Liberal values are Midlands values, Midlands values are British values.”

Mid-way through his campaign trail in the last general election, /u/JackWilfred, then a mere candidate in the West Midlands seat of Shropshire and Staffordshire, made this surprising assertion.

Surprising because liberal candidates historically had not been successful in a West Midlands region traditionally dominated by the Tories. In fits and starts, only Labour have threatened a serious challenge to the Tory hegemony, and the Greens and NUP have gained seats there, but on the whole the West Midlands, and the midlands generally, can rightly be seen as Tory heartlands.

As for liberal parties, only a couple of paper candidates have showed up anywhere in the West Midlands, and none of them has done particularly well in recent elections.

Now, however, something is rumbling to the west of Birmingham. Not only have the Liberal Democrats gained two seats in the West Midlands, but they have gained two constituency seats in the last six months. Joining /u/JackWilfred, MP for Shropshire and Staffordshire, will be /u/jess-ellis-12, the recently-inaugurated MP for the Black Country.

This is a curious thing, not only because of the electoral history in the region, but because of perceived policy differences, particularly that one policy that so dominates the landscape at this moment. Both Shopshire and the Black Country were staunch anti-EU constituencies - the Black Country vote was 70% in favour of leaving the EU - and yet both constituencies have returned pro-EU and broadly internationalist MPs to Westminster.

The significance of this cannot be understated, especially as /u/jess-ellis-12 ran on an explicitly pro-immigration campaign, targetting both her LPUK opponent and the outgoing NUP MP; one might expect an angle like this to fail spectacularly, as after all voters in the West Midlands had apparently made their preferences pretty clear. But, in the event, the voters of the Black Country moved to reject the thinly-veiled ethnonationalism of her opponent and predecessor.

Coupled with /u/JackWilfred’s campaigning openly as a pro-EU candidate - and winning - I think there is cause to consider a ripple of change among the people of this country. The West Midlands has never been a happy hunting ground for liberals, but the Liberal Democrats now have two constituency seats there. For all the carping in the media about the troubles a 25-strong (now 26, of course) minority Government is having this term, the Liberal Alliance Government is still there, still working and still making strong showings in by-elections where governing parties are traditionally expected to lose and lose heavily.

Considering that the last Government was a genuine majority Government, and that Government fell into a malaise of policy paralysis and poor communication that precipitated its collapse, we should be both surprised and reassured that the liberals are holding fast on the reins of Government and gathering up support where we least expect to see it.

This piece is the opinion of the author and does not necessarily reflect the view of the Model Times Group