Party vote

"If the next New Zealand general election were held today, for which party would you cast your party vote?"

Seat projections assume electorates won as in this poll.

Electorate vote

"If the next New Zealand general election were held today, for which candidate in your local electorate would you cast your electorate vote?"

Northland

Auckland

Waikato

Manawatū

Te Waipounamu

Rohe

Methodology

Sample size: 1000 eligible voters

Margin of error: ±3% for a result around 50%

Fieldwork day: 10 October 2022

Feedback

Labour support has kinda been distributed all the place, so I'll just repeat what I said the last time -- these polls are not set in stone. I know this is always said but trust me, if you're leading, don't get complacent, and if you're behind, don't get despondent. The most important factor to win will be a good campaign -- if you don't have that, you'll probably lose.

Actually, here's some feedback just for Kate, because I know she'll be annoyed by the Rohe result, and not unjustifiably so -- yes, if the Māori Party was actually on 15% IRL (and heck, even 10%), they'd probably be dominating Rohe like no tomorrow. But with the intense right-wing dominance nationwide, it's difficult for that not to bleed over here, and Pacman has also stood here a number of times, making him a strong opponent, hence why this race might be closer than you expected. The left is still much stronger in Rohe than anywhere else, it's just that they're (pre-election) very weak nationwide.

Feel free to ask me any questions about these poll results if you have any!