Note: These polls include all posts made on the third day of campaigning. This is the last polling before the election, so use it wisely!

Party vote

"If the next New Zealand general election were held today, for which party would you cast your party vote?"

Seat projections assume electorates won as in this poll.

Commentary: National's growth appears to have topped out somewhat (though this is still quite an impressive result given where they started), but ACT also showed up today with some quality campaigning, which has helped them claw back some ground. Labour does nothing and so goes down yet again.

Electorate vote

"If the next New Zealand general election were held today, for which candidate in your local electorate would you cast your electorate vote?"

Northland

Commentary: A focused list campaign and MLastCelebration being the only person to campaign in Northland puts National within striking distance but not quite there yet.

Auckland

Commentary: eelsemaj99 expands and strengthens his lead after a good day of campaigning.

Waikato

Commentary: Waikato continues to tighten even though no-one's actually done any campaigning here since the last poll -- mainly national campaigns bleeding over here.

Manawatū

Commentary: zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Te Waipounamu

Commentary: I stand by my statement that this is one of the more interesting races this election. Frost_Walker2017's stemmed the fall a bit by campaigning, but Aussie-Parliament-RP has jumped into a (fairly distant) second. An upset seems here like a tall order, but given the starting point here it'd be interesting to see how much Aussie-Parliament-RP can close the gap by -- or if anyone else does anything.

Rohe

Commentary: superpacman04 finally campaigns here, and makes the race much more competitive. I don't think it'd take much for National to take this one (a profoundly weird statement about our only Māori electorate) but if Labour can put in the effort they'll probably gain.

Methodology

Sample size: 1000 eligible voters

Margin of error: ±3% for a result around 50%

Fieldwork day: 28 July 2022