Note: These polls include all posts made on the first day of campaigning, as well as manifestos.

Party vote

"If the next New Zealand general election were held today, for which party would you cast your party vote?"

Seat projections assume electorates won as in this poll.

Commentary: This is less a result of National having some sort of uniquely good campaign, but rather the fact that National were the only party to really show up today for the list (bar Frosty's post for ACT). The calculator doesn't like it when parties simply fail to show up, so National have accordingly rocketed to first place. I expect this result to be an aberration given the campaign's still early, but my advice to National would basically be this.

If you want to try and preserve your result here, focus more on quality rather than quantity -- we got quite a few posts from National candidates today, but some were generic, short and repetitive. Enough to give you a lead over an empty field, but may not be enough to sustain it. My advice to ACT and Labour? Essentially, hit back with quality, diverse campaigning, and try and dethrone National from their new top spot on the polls.

Electorate vote

"If the next New Zealand general election were held today, for which candidate in your local electorate would you cast your electorate vote?"

Waikato

Commentary: A pretty good campaign post from Gunnz011 has helped him nab some votes mainly from his as-of-yet inactive Labour opponent to jump into second, while Lady_Aya essentially holds steady. Could be an interesting race.

Te Waipounamu

Commentary: I reckon Te Waipounamu might be one of the most interesting seats this election, and this poll shows why. While Frost_Walker2017 is still far ahead, two good campaign posts see Aussie-Parliament-RP jumping up in the polls, and the sky could basically be the limit with a strong campaign. Frost_Walker2017 is still the favourite in my eyes, but this could be interesting depends on how they use their posts, and if the SIPP is at all a factor.

Methodology

Sample size: 1000 eligible voters

Margin of error: ±3% for a result around 50%

Fieldwork day: 26 July 2022