I know his plan was to lure him to mandalore and kill him but is that even possible? Surely he would have had to trap anakin or something rather than a fair duel right?

Obi wan was able to hold off maul and savage for a good bit in that one episode. Ahsoka, who is weaker than anakin for sure at this point gave maul a pretty fair fight. Finally anakin is strong enough to kill count dooku alone by this point.

Did maul realize what he was getting into with this or did he not know how strong anakin really was by this point?

(Im also not even mentioning obi wan, who id imagine would be there too if anakin went. I really dont see maul winning in that case)