I know with all the red star changes everyone is feeling a nice glow about changes. I just wanted to bring to light the subtle nerfing between character events.

First off, this is not about the question on if the common (48%) is actually 8 or 5 shards. For the purposes of this post, I am going to assume that it is just a typo and that it is in fact 8 shards like all the events before it.

If you dive into the 2 uncommon orbs, you will see that the chances of Prox dropping is 10%. This is down from 14% from to Toad event. All other drop rates and %'s are the same as the last event.

What does this mean? It means that the average expected shards per orb opening is down by .2316 shards per orb. It does not sound like a lot, but it ends up being around 10 shards over the duration of the event (assuming you are using 50 core refreshes for energy).

Just for comparison:

The Toad event had an average drop rate of 5.4406 per orb. This number comes from the average of the sides (1.3 shards a side) and the center (2.84 shards). I don't want to clutter this post with all the % numbers, but feel free to check me.

Prox's event ends up being right at 5.209 shards per orb.

I average about 45 orbs per event by using the 50 core refreshes. So the expected (yes, yes, RNG blah blah blah) shard drop for Toad was 244 and the expected shard drop for Prox is 234.

FN is slowly pushing away and lowering the chances of non spenders getting to 5 star. This isn't a post about good or bad of spending. Just spreading awareness in case you are wondering why you aren't as close to 5 star Prox as you were with Toad.

P.S. I guess not much math here, too lazy to get the formatting right.