I see a lot of people going back and forth on wondering how come they haven't seen Capt Marvel in their own milestone orbs despite the fact that shes a "featured" character in the special orbs. I just wanted to take a moment and breakdown the math and why you shouldn't hold your breath.

Chance at pulling a Capt Marvel Orb - 1.8%

Chance at pulling Coulson - 4.2%

Math-

I am not doing chance per shard or average shards per pull, just the ultra basic math on pulling either orb and getting Capt.

6% chance at pulling the orbs with CM in it and a 30% chance of pulling CM from it. 6% X 30% = 1.8%.

Side note, chance of pulling any other specific character from the orb is 1.02% (in case you were really gunning for that Hand Sorc).

So don't get super excited when you click on the orb breakdown and see the 30% for her in 2 separate orbs. It's just there to make you feel good.

Extra bonus probability fact because numbers are fun: The chances of pulling CM even once over 50 separate pulls is only 60%. Yay probability!