Overview

The Mariners have been the talk of baseball coming into the second half. As we know, they have won 23 of their past 25, including a 14 game win streak heading into the break (the longest winning streak heading into the All-Star break in MLB history). This got me thinking: how does the first half of the 2022 season compare to Mariners seasons of the past?

I decided to look at each season since 1995 (when the three-division format was first implemented for a completed season), looking at the record, win/loss streak, last 10 games, run differential, and Pythagorean win-loss record of each Mariners team at the All-Star break. In addition, I compared each team’s standing at the break to the final result of the season, and determined if they would have made the playoffs under the current 3-wild card format.

Note: The 2020 season is not included due to being significantly shortened

A quick run-down of Pythagorean Win-Loss/Winning Percentage: Pythagorean Win-Loss is a statistic that uses a team's runs scored and runs allowed to determine the number of games that team should have won. It can be helpful to highlight teams that are overperforming or underperforming. It often uses a formula such as:

(Runs scored)² / [(Runs scored)² (Runs allowed)² )]

For this analysis, I used the Pythagorean winning percentage provided by Baseball-Reference, specifically looking at each team's record before the All-Star Break.

More about Pythagorean Winning Percentage:

From mlb.com

From baseball-reference.com

STRUCTURE (in case you want to skip ahead or read a specific part)

Table

Season-by-season Breakdown

Summary

Season-by-season breakdown

1995

As we all know, the 1995 Mariners made the postseason for the first time in remarkable fashion, riding a late-season surge (and late-season collapse of the Angels) to take the division and eventually eliminate the Yankees en route to an ALCS berth. At the All-Star break, the team was sitting around .500 with a run differential of 1, compared to 2022's 51-42 (.548, 36). Of note: this season was shortened due to the 1994 strike, with teams playing 145 games.

1996

The 1996 Mariners finished the season 85-76, 4.5 games back of the division and 2.5 games back of the sole WC spot. The team entered the All-Star Break at 46-39 (.541, 45 RD), not quite as strong as 2022's 51-42 (.548, 36).

Under the current playoff format, the Mariners would’ve squeaked in as the third wild card. And boy, would they have squeaked in. The Mariners actually only played 161 games; a win in their 162nd game would clinch the WC2 spot outright. A loss would have resulted in a three-way tie with the White Sox and Boston. Using the current tie-breaking procedures, Boston would secure WC2 via their head-to-head vs. Seattle and their superior intra-division record compared to the White Sox. The Mariners would then secure WC3 via their head-to-head record vs. the White Sox. This would’ve secured a matchup with the Rangers in the first round.

1997

The 1997 Mariners won the division with a 90-72 record. They were 49-38 (.563, 38) at the break, marginally stronger than 2022's 51-42 (.548, 36).

1998 and 1999

The 1998 and 1999 Mariners finished 76-85 and 79-83 respectively. They were 37-51 (.420, -16) and 42-45 (.483, -23) at the break, both much weaker than 2022's 51-42 (.548, 36). Neither were close to the playoffs, regardless of format.

2000

The 2000 Mariners finished 91-71, good enough to clinch the sole WC spot. They were 51-35 (.593, 119) at the break, compared to 2022's 51-42 (.548, 36).

2001

They were doing much better at the break. I probably don’t need to elaborate, but for those who are curious: 63-24 (.724, 149) at the break. They were pretty good.

2002

Despite finishing with the second-best record in franchise history (93-69), the 2002 Mariners did not make the playoffs (thanks, Moneyball). They entered the break 55-33 (.625, 116), marginally stronger than 2022's 51-42 (.548, 36).

As you can guess, the 2002 squad would be a wild card team under the current format (WC3 to be exact, behind Anaheim and Boston).

2003

A carbon-copy of 2002 (same record, same outcome). They entered the break 58-35 (.624, 121), also stronger than 2022's 51-42 (.548, 36).

The 2003 squad would also be a wild card team under the current format, clinching the second wild card outright.

2004

99 losses.

32-54 (.372, -70) at the break, for those wondering. No, they would not be a WC team.

2005

They improved–they only lost 93 games this year.

39-48 (.448, -11) at the break. Nope to the playoffs.

2006

‘98 and ‘99 again, pretty much. Finished 78-84. No playoffs under any format.

43-46 (.483, 5) at the break vs. 2022's 51-42 (.548, 36).

2007

Their first winning record since 2003 (88-74) didn’t get them into the playoffs in 2007, but would’ve gotten them into the playoffs under the current format (along with Detroit!).

At the break, they were 49-36 (.576, 17), a better winning percentage than 2022 (.576 vs. .548) but a much less stable run differential ( 17 vs. 36).

2008

https://i.imgur.com/Ogq7WLt.jpeg

2009

This one is a heartbreaker. The Mariners finish 85-77 and miss the playoffs. Under the current format they would…still miss the playoffs, 1 GB of Detroit for WC3. Ouch.

46-42 (.523, -18) at the break, compared to 2022's 51-42 (.548, 36). Safe to say the 2022 squad is in a better spot.

2010 and 2011

https://i.imgur.com/Ogq7WLt.jpeg

2012

75-87, no playoffs.

36-51 (.414, -28) at the break, which is actually worse than the 2011 team that finished 67-95 (and much, much worse than the 2022 squad).

2013

71-91 to end the season.

43-52 at the break (.453, -55).

2014

Ah, the 2014 team. Finished 87-75, 1 GB of the second WC spot, getting eliminated on the last day. They would've been the third WC spot under the current format.

51-44 (.537, 57) at the break. Nearly identical to the 2022 squad (51-42, .548, 36). The 2014 squad didn’t have a 14 game winning streak heading into the break, though: they were 4-6 in their last 10.

2015

76-86.

41-48 (.461, -48) at the break.

2016

This one sucks. In multiple ways.

86-76 to end the year. No playoffs under the two-wild card format. Also no playoffs in the three-wild card format: Seattle was tied with Detroit in the standings, and Detroit won the season series 3-2. Ugh.

45-44 (.506, 51) at the break. Weirdly high differential for a .500 team. The only time so far that the team had a Pythagorean winning percentage above .510 at the break and would have failed to make the playoffs under the current three-wild card format.

2017

78-84.

43-47 (.478, -4) at the break.

2018

Despite finishing 89-73, the 2018 squad missed the postseason. Under the current format, they’d still finish 1 GB of Tampa for the third wild card.

58-39 (.598, -2) at the break. While the winning percentage is much better than the 2022 team, their run differential is worse by 38. A pretty wide gap.

2019

The tank year. 68-94.

39-55 (.415, -71) at the break, the second worst run differential so far (behind 2010’s -79).

2021

The 2021 Mariners finished 90-72, their first 90 win season since 2003. They barely missed out on the playoffs, and that would’ve held true under the current format as well (1 GB of Toronto).

At the break, the team was 48-43 (.527), with a run differential of -50. To put it into perspective, the 71-91 2013 Mariners had a run differential of -55 at the break. The 67-95 2011 Mariners had a better run differential at the break (-18). Really emphasizes how remarkable last season was.

Summary

Since 1995, 10 Mariners teams have entered the break with a Pythagorean winning percentage above .510 (which translates to a 46-44 record through 90 games). Eight of those teams clinched a playoff spot or would have clinched a playoff spot under the current format ('96, '97, '00, '01, '02, '03, '07, '14), while one would just barely miss the playoffs due to a tiebreaker (‘16). The tenth team is the 2022 Mariners.

While we won't know where the 2022 team will end up, it is exciting seeing that they are currently on a trajectory to make the postseason. Here's to hoping they keep that momentum going and finally get the Mariners back to postseason baseball.