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On the eve of the December 2021 devolved elections, as Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland head to the polls to elect their next devolved assemblies, Ipsos/Mori has graced us with an exit poll that has given a shock to the system in all three assemblies.

Holyrood Exit Poll

First, in Scotland, the Scottish Conservatives, who have been dominant in Scotland in recent years are predicted to fall from 38 seats to just 10 in Holyrood, a steep decline emphasised by their lack of turnout from candidates during the campaign.

Scottish Conservative leader EruditeFellow

In their place, New Britain - the Scottish wing of Coalition! have jumped from 18 seats to 38 seats, making them the major right-wing force in Scotland now. They trail behind the Scottish Liberal Democrats who sit on 40 seats, taking the plurality and surely meaning u/Comped returning as First Minister, possibly in coalition with the SNP and Scottish Progressives, who have lost 13 seats (from 36 to 23) and gained 8 seats (from 10 to 18) respectively.

First Minister Comped

This result would also surely be a nail in the coffin for Scottish nationalist momentum and a victory for unionists, as four of the five parties in this election are all pro-union parties, including the two largest parties.

Senedd Exit Poll

In Wales, the left continues to grow in power as Welsh Labour, also known as Llafur Cymru, gain 2 seats (from 17 to 19) and the Welsh Workers’ Party gain 3 seats (from 5 to 8), with Plaid Cymru - the Welsh nationalist party, remaining on 11 seats according to this exit poll. The Welsh Liberal Democrats gain 4 seats (from 12 to 16) to become the second largest party in the Senedd, with the Welsh Conservatives, the current opposition party, dropping a whopping 9 seats, from 15 to just 6.

First Minister Model-Avery (possibly, might just be a duck I found in the park)

This result surely ensures a return of u/model-avery as First Minister, with the possibility of Plaid leader u/Zakian3000 becoming Deputy First Minister in place of Lib Dem leader u/RhysGwenythIV, as a Llafur-Plaid government would be 30 seats - the exact number required for a majority, though I’m sure WWP leader u/Muffin5136 would be eager to bring his party back into government in Wales, as they had been for the 2 terms and 3 governments before the term just gone.

Stormont Ext Poll

Finally, we head to Northern Ireland where the exit poll predicts that the unionist Ulster Workers’ Party will become the first unionist party to lead the executive since the UUP 4 terms ago, with u/KalvinLokan being the first unionist First Minister elected since u/ka4bi 2 years ago.

The UWP sit pretty on 31 seats, a gain of 11, with Sinn Féin on 21 seats, a loss of 14. This result would also relegate Sinn Féin to being the second largest nationalist party in Stormont and therefore not entitled to a Deputy First Minister place, with this being taken up by the Social Democratic & Labour Party (formerly Labour NI), who gain 7.

The Official Opposition party, the Ulster Unionist Party, are predicted to lose 4 seats, from 12 to 8 and the only other party in the Assembly, Coalition! NI are down 3, from 7 to 4. Two new parties will enter the Assembly according to this election poll with the Alliance Party (the only designated ‘Other’ party) winning 2 seats and People Before Profit, led by former First Minister, u/ABrokenHero, winning a lone seat.

UWP Leader KalvinLokan

In total, unionist parties (UWP, UUP and C!NI) are predicted to win 43 seats and nationalist parties (Sinn Féin, SDLP and PBP) are predicted to win 45 seats, with Alliance being ‘Other’ and on 2 seats, as mentioned before.

This would prove to be both an immense triumph for unionists, but maybe a tad bitter as they failed to get the majority they were aiming for. The return of a Unionist First Minister will surely be a sight for sore eyes for many in the loyalist community, whereas the relegation of Sinn Féin to third place will be seen as a blow for hopes of Irish reunification. This result also sees a left-wing supermajority, with 4 of the 6 parties (comprising 76 of the 90 seats) elected being explicitly left-wing, with right-wing and centrist parties winning just 14 seats in total.

As for predictions for who will be in government next term, I predict that we will see a continuing coalition of the Scottish Liberal Democrats, Scottish National Party and Scottish Progressives in Holyrood, led by First Minister u/Comped.

In Wales, I’m going to predict a coalition of Welsh Labour, Plaid Cymru and the Welsh Workers’ Party, with u/model-avery continuing as First Minister and Deputy First Minister u/RhysGwenythIV leading the Opposition.

And in Northern Ireland, the executive will surely be comprised of the Ulster Workers’ Party and the Social Democratic & Labour Party, with u/KalvinLokan as First Minister and u/Lady-Aya as Deputy First Minister, possibly with Alliance leader u/Metesbilge as the other Deputy First Minister, though this may not be needed with the UWP and SDLP together having a majority.

However, anything can happen. This exit poll may be entirely wrong á la 1992, or they may be exactly right. Only time may tell. Results are tomorrow (Sunday 12th December), so be there or be square.

Sam British-Dodd,

Chief Political Editor,

The Observer