Imagine an election from a future. Not the future, just a future. In this election we see another bitterly hung parliament, as Labour fragments into Solidarity just as the Conservatives did to form the LPUK, and a myriad of minor parties scrabble for scraps.

This article uses a highly scientific methodology based on existing trends and recent changes (bodgy spreadsheets) to attempt to predict what the outcome of the election might look like. From this we can start to learn what the next Parliament will be like for those elected to it. Think of it as an exercise in political nihilism.

An ethereal exit poll.

Firstly, we must calculate the national vote. Let us imagine on this hypothetical election, the following exit poll is taken;

The immediate takeaway is the huge collapse in the two traditional parties' vote shares, with the Conservatives and Labour both dropping almost 8%. In their place, Coalition! and Solidarity gain from their losses. This doesn't necessarily represent a change in the balance of power, more so it demonstrates that the further balkanisation of the traditional parties has allowed wings of those parties to effectively gain independence for themselves.

However this is a deeply split parliament, with any majority likely being contingent on either a fragile coalition of established parties, or on a smattering of independents who may be unpredictable and unstable in their voting habits.

But how many seats?

Now, we must translate this exit poll into seats. In this election the number of list seats will double, creating a Parliament of 150 seats, of which 100 are list seats. This significantly increases proportionality at a regional level, and as such a decision has been taken not to model individual constituencies, as they are unlikely to have a great impact, what matters is the regional list vote.

The increase in seats also makes it hard to track changes in seats, as such we've taken the decision to multiply existing seats in the current parliament by 1.5 to have a clear comparison to the current Parliament, as such the Effective Seat Change tracks the change in seats if the current Parliament was 150 seats.

From this exit poll, the following is projected;

In this Parliament, a government needs 76 seats to command a majority, so let's see how some possible coalitions do.

Pheonix and friends

Firstly, the Government as it stands now, is simply dead.

Pheonix Coalition - 36/76

But what if Solidarity were to form a coalition from it's ashes? In this scenario Solidarity as the largest party would likely take Number 10, but if Labour were to put their pride aside it may be possible.

Solidarity-Pheonix Coalition - 59/76

While this Government looks a little healthier, it is still brutally in the minority. If this Government were to form it would look a lot like the current Government, very much reliant on either Libertarian or Conservative votes to get their business through the House.

As an act of kindness, let's consider a kitchen sink left wing coalition, or "Alliance of Broad Left" with everyone vaguely left wing on board.

Kitchen Sink ABL Coalition - 67/76

As seen here, it still isn't enough. This tenuous coalition simply wouldn't be able to command a majority, and it's hard to see any of the Opposition parties really wanting to play ball with a Solidarity lead Government. Once again, the left cannot control a Parliamentary majority.

Libertarian options

If the Government cannot command a majority, then it must fall to the largest Opposition party to try, and by one seat that is the LPUK. Let's see who might put Friedmanite into Number 10.

Blurple 3 (boooooring) - 67/76

While I am utterly bored by the idea of another Blurple Government, they do have a very strong position, immediately commanding as many seats as the Kitchen Sink Left Wing coalition. They would have options to get their business across the house as well, with either the Lib Dems or Coalition! potentially providing the majorities they need.

The problem here is getting the Conservatives on board. This was the party that already ejected Friedmanite, and it's not entirely believable that they would now support him in entering Number 10 in their place. While this coalition has the numbers, it may not have the heart.

Let's try a different tact. We've seen the LPUK do an unexpected deal with the Pheonix Government to deliver a budget, could this be a sign of more to come?

Hahaha Labour is Right Wing Coalition - 70/76

Even better on the numbers, the Government would only need a handful of votes to get business through, making this the strongest minority Government so far. The question is what they would actually propose, could the marriage of convenience between the Government and LPUK survive into the future? It's an interesting prospect, especially to a Libertarian Party who now understands that their traditional partners in the Conservatives don't always have their best interests in mind.

Conservatives back in Number 10

The party once considered the natural party of Government is certainly on the backfoot in this projection, but let's give them a crack at the whip and see what happens if we cast our minds back to 2010, now with some extra friends.

Clegg Coalition - 62/76

So close yet so far, even with their estranged siblings in Coalition! back in the fold, the classic Clegg coalition can't quite manage a majority. But what if we were a little more creative in our thinking?

The Grand Coalition - 81/76

Does anyone remember GranCo? Am I just an old timer? GranCo was a coalition between the Conservatives and Labour, which eventually fell apart when Labour members noticed about four months in that they were in a coalition with the "evil Tories". Now imagine a sort of broad centrist Government.

This government has the strength that it's fairly unobjectionable. Labour's radicals have all left for Solidarity, Coalition! famously has little ideology beyond a sort of wholesome one nation Conservativism, and the Liberal Democrats exist. With a bit of Conservative energy and dynamism, it might just work. If I was lucky enough to have one of those little grey seats, I'd be looking to join in myself!

Conclusion

So, my advice to politicians? Whatever you do, don't get elected.