​

Edition #2 - 09 August 2020

Wales Votes

Last Friday Wales went to the ballot box to elect their new five MPs, two constituency seats and three list seats. It was a heavy and surprising campaign, for multiple reasons and here’s our prediction and a flashback to the campaign. The Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats are set to dominate Wales, once again.

February Election

During the last February election Labour dominated Wales, the current First Minister of Wales won the constituency of Glamorgan and Gwent and they picked up another list-seat. While the Conservatives won the other constituency race in Wales, by winning North and Central Wales, the Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru picked up the two other list seats. The fight was pretty close in North and Central Wales, where the LPUK and Plaid fought hard for a second-place, close to the Conservatives. Due to the LPUK not standing in Glamorgan and Gwent, they missed a list seat there, instead, it went to the Liberal Democrats.

Reshuffling of the cards

Biggest surprises of the election in Wales were both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, who fought hard against each other in both Glamorgan and Gwent and in North and Central Wales. model-cock, FPSlover1 and model-willem were three of the most active campaigners, showing their faces all over their constituencies. When it comes to Glamorgan and Gwent, both model-cock and FPSlover1 campaigned all week, they had other politicians canvassing for them. Plaid’s candidate ViktorHR had a mediocre campaign, not showing up a lot. Labour’s candidate toohak113 was nowhere to be found. Last time’s candidate and current First Minister of Wales, Secretary_Salami, didn’t run in Glamorgan and Gwent and didn’t campaign, we, therefore, are predicting that the Liberal Democrats will win this constituency.

When it comes to the other constituency, North and Central Wales, the campaign was mostly between the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats and Labour. The Conservatives, defending the seat, the Secretary of State for Wales, came in to campaign a bit, but we expect that his voters will still stay with him. The Liberal Democrats, just like in Glamorgan and Gwent, went all out and campaigned hard in this constituency. The Labour candidate campaigned a bit and probably did enough to pull out a list seat, we don’t expect them to win. Plaid Cymru’s candidate, the DRF Leader, who was removed as MP for Wales, came out to campaign a bit, but we don’t expect their base to stay there for another run. We expect the Conservatives taken the seat.

When it comes to the list seats, we expect the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Labour to take the three list seats that are available in Wales. With this, the three former main parties will dominate Wales once more.