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7
National Opinion Polling - 2nd August
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Question: If the General Election were held today, who would you vote for?

Polls conducted between the 16th July and the 2nd August (debates finishing during this period).

Party 15th July % 2nd August % % Change Change
Conservative Party 28.83 30.09 1.25
Libertarian Party UK 23.98 23.99 0.01 Up 1
Labour Party 24.99 23.39 -1.60 Down 1
Liberal Democrats 11.70 12.73 1.03
The People's Movement 4.05 4.30 0.25
Democratic Reformist Front 2.87 2.35 -0.52
People's Unity Party 2.40 2.17 -0.23
Other 1.18 0.99 -0.19

Notes:

  • Well done to the Tories, building off their gain from last week with a decent last push of some nice legislation, press and squeezing out the last few Government actions of the term to tip them over that 30% mark going into the election. They should be pleased.
  • LPUK a nice hold in a competitive week, boosted by a term of consistently impressive turnout in the division lobbies. I imagine they'll also be quite pleased with this because...
  • Labour unfortunately dropping to 3rd this week. Members defecting and leaving, activity plummeting, and no obvious indications of how leadership will take control of the situation. They'll need a dramatic turn-around in most aspects of the party to slow this freefall of the last month.
  • LDs a really great week, especially for a party your size. If every week this term had been this good we could really see the LDs playing with the Big 3. As it is, this push has come a little late, but I'm optimistic we'll see great things from them this election.
  • TPM some nice press and legislation, continuing to shine distinctly above the other minor parties, this feels like a fair representation of the party in its current state.
  • DRF still very unclear where their leader has gone, activity down across the board. Not actually as bad a week as "-0.52" might suggest, but unfortunately most parties were making a final push pre-election and there was really nothing to match that here.
  • I'm a little disappointed to see the PUP's climb stop so soon, but we simply need a bit more of everything across the board in WM if you want to match your impressive climbs in the devolved regions.

Enjoy the election!

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