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Stormont Opinion Polling - Late February 2020
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A poll for BBC News Northern Ireland asked 1001 Electors the following question on the 26th of February 2020:

At the next Northern Ireland Assembly General Election, which party will you vote for with your 1st preference vote?

The polling has a 3% margin of error.


Ulster Unionist Party: 25.83% (-3.41%)

Labour Party in Northern Ireland: 23.67% ( 4.17%)

Alliance Party of Northern Ireland: 17.24% (-4.64%)

Irish Parliamentary Party (including RNI): 11.12% (-2.27%)

Democratic Unionist Party: 8.42% (-4.16%)

Democratic Left: 6.33% ( 5.18%)

Ecological Party: 2.96% (New entry)

Saor Ó Chaipitleachais: 2.26% ( 0.92)

Northern Ireland Women's Coalition: 1.40% (New entry)

Irish Libertarian Party: 0.58% (-0.23%)


Explanations

  • UUP and Alliance both underachieving in activity based off current polling, although UUP commenting is improving. More activity and members needed to stem the losses.

  • Great activity from LPNI and Democratic Left, really showing the emergence of a new left force in NI politics.

  • Ecological Party doing well with good activity, main piece of advice would be more active members in the Assembly.

  • IPP had an average week, the big surge in activity cost them however, and will need to turn this around quickly if they are to recuperate.

  • Saor Ó Chapitleachas and NIWEP benefiting from being smaller, however both will find it difficult to grow without more activity and members.

  • Close to zero activity from the ILP or DUP, both risk being plateaued if not addressed quickly.

The lack of submitted legislation is something all parties should look at, as its a great way to influence voters and polling.


Any other queries, feel free to ask in a comment below!

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