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5
National Opinion Polling - 6th November
Post Body
Question: If the General Election were held today, who would you vote for?
Polls conducted between the 31st October and the 6th November.
6th November | Notional Change | |
---|---|---|
Conservative Party | 31.67% | -0.57% |
Labour Party | 21.95% | 0.56% |
Libertarian Party UK | 14.74% | 0.45% |
Classical Liberals | 10.85% | -0.51% |
Liberal Democrats | 9.13% | 0.21% |
Democratic Reformist Front | 3.17% | 0.08% |
Loyalist League | 2.30% | -0.10% |
The People's Movement | 2.30% | 0.17% |
Irish Parliamentary Party | 1.69% | -0.18% |
Monster Raving Loony Party | 0.85% | 0.11% |
Yorkshire Party | 0.75% | 0.16% |
Plaid Cymru | 0.38% | -0.04% |
Scottish Greens | 0.21% | -0.04% |
Notes:
- Okay so the first thing you're going to be shocked by is the big changes - and that's because I found a mistake in the polling spreadsheet going back to the General Election. Simply put, the 'total active members in MHOC' field was locked to the first weeks calculation (which was about 80) rather than calculating it for every week. That meant that, when it came to working out how active parties were relatively to one another, it was basing it off the wrong number. Thankfully, the number of active members doesn't change significantly week-to-week so the numbers aren't terribly out of wack. However, for example in weeks when we may have had less active members (say 60) - if you have 3 of those that's 5% whereas if it's calculating out of the locked 80 that's only 3.75%. Now, the formulas aren't that simple but hopefully that explains the issue - generally it helped bigger parties and hindered smaller parties (it explains for example why the DRF were essentially 'locked' on around 2%). Importantly: the week to week trends are basically unaffected and I have corrected all of the polling going back to the GE so it's all fixed. I'm not going to publish it because the margins of errors can't be replicated however this weeks polling will show the actual changes from the correct last weeks (with MOE however) so you can tell if you have gone up or down this week or as a result of the fix (or both, or neither!)
- Labour had an excellent week: active commenting, MQs, legislation, press - essentially everything
- Liberal Democrats also continued to build on their great week from last week
- Classical Liberals had a decent week, however could have commented more and could have asked more MQs to be well rounded (however the 'fall' is mainly because you are active enough for your size and got squeezed out by the growing parties).
- Conservatives had a poor relative week, with nearly half the comments of Labour for example but on the same sort of size.
- LPUK gain because of good legislation submissions but could comment more.
- LL had an average week for them
- DRF hold steady
- TPM gain a little thanks to some good comments, but could be more active.
- IPP probably at their peak so expect to hold firm or fall a little.
- MRLP was ok.
- Yorkshire Party could be more active and are growing mainly because they are so small rather than because they're doing well.
The rest of the parties (unless I've accidentally missed you) have been removed from polling until you start showing out week-on-week.
And that's it for polling from me - I leave you in the very capable hands of /u/Britboy3456 from next week so go to them with any qualms in the future.
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