YouGov, on behalf of Wales Online, asked a representative sample of 1079 voters across Wales the following question on February 13th:

If the election to the Senedd Cymru / Welsh Parliament was taking place today, which party would you vote for on the regional list?

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Today's polling includes the 'Notional' polling. This is calculated by taking the average of the pre-election polling and the election results on a 2:1 ratio, and serves as the basis of the polling for this term. The February 2024 figures are calculated compared to the notional polling.

Feedback:

Llafur Cymru: Congratulations on forming government. This accounts for a chunk of your polling increase, as you likely know. You had a good first cycle, debate wise, and some good press too. Bit of a weaker second cycle which was offset by government legislation and...

Plaid Cymru: Your drop was everybody else's gain, really. Across both cycles there wasn't really... anything, like at all. Multiple MQs sessions were missed, no debates (really) took place, no press was posted, and no legislation was submitted (aside from one by the SPUP, which was counted as yours for ease of polling). I am aware that you now have a new leader, and from a glance at the most recent debate (which is not included in this as it closed at the same time these polls were published) you're back in force, so it's more the next set of polling you'll want to look at for more precise feedback than "please do something".

Welsh Conservatives: Formed government. Active in multiple debates with high quality comments, actual debating, and more than one member. Same story as everywhere else, really - weaker second cycle, but as we're heading into election preparation season for Westminster this is not unecpected. You also missed one MQs session, which hindered your growth slightly.

Maroiogog (ind.): Same advice as in Scotland, really. Few debates here and there and an LCM - if you want to do more than just vibe you'll be best served by being more present.

Welsh Liberals: Similar story with the Scottish Tories - you formed, did some bits near the start, and then disappeared again. If you're still alive, you'll basically need to do everything to keep growing - more debates, some press, and ideally some legislation too.