Too often in the context of public health, it is seen as a given that exercise and wellness resources for those that are within the overweight or obese weight categories will reduce the population of those categories. It is viewed as a given that if they work at it, any person who is obese or overweight can reach a normal weight category. However, how true is this assumption?

Recently, The Countess de la Warr released a response to our previous article. Ask the Countess, or likely any person off the street, what one should do to lose weight and largely two ideas will come up, diet and exercise. It is a mantra that is often repeated and those that fail to lose weight are often viewed as simply being undisciplined and unable to do either diet or exercise. However, research about diets shows revealing data regarding the effectiveness of dieting for consistent weight loss.

For instance, an analysis study of 20 studies shows that dieting can often predict weight gain, not weight loss. Out of the 20 studies, 15, or 75% of the studies, indicated that dieting predicted weight gain. However, that is only about dieting. What about the often repeated point about exercise?

In the article, the Countess de la Warr repeats the maxim of “calories in vs calories out”. While this is a widespread belief in society, it is not a true one.

The truth is that even careful calorie calculations don't always yield uniform results. How your body burns calories depends on a number of factors, including the type of food you eat, your body's metabolism, and even the type of organisms living in your gut. You can eat the exact same number of calories as someone else, yet have very different outcomes when it comes to your weight.

• Dr. Fatima Cody Stanford, an obesity specialist and assistant professor of medicine and pediatrics at Harvard Medical School.

The study that is the origin of the maxim of “calories in, calories out” is not only outdated, coming out in the 1950s, but also wrong. Since then, our understanding of our own bodies has progressed. Not only that, but there are some serious concerns about the methodology and findings of the study.

Furthermore in our previous article, the issue of genetics was brought up to offer a rebuttal to the endemic attitude regarding how fat people “just need to lose weight”. Qala dpa’la do not mean to solely place it at the feet of genetics but rather point to a larger issue. We still do not understand fatness. To tackle an issue, you need to understand the root of the issue. You can address the symptoms but unless you understand the root of it, all your measures are merely mitigating.

And it is not shown that society’s measures have helped very much at all. Although there is this societal belief that anyone can lose weight if they simply try hard enough, reality does not quite reflect this. Of those we know who lose weight, it is often people who gain 50 lbs and then lose that weight. And while these people do have a decent chance of doing so, that is often not the case for those in the obese category, the subject of the article by the Countess. There is a mountain of difference between losing 50 lbs that you temporarily put on versus losing 200 lbs which you’ve had basically your entire life. And the science backs this up. In a study of a little over 2 million surveyed, it was found that in overall obesity, the chance of an obese person to reach a normal weight was 1 in 210 for men and 1 in 124 for women. And it does not stop there. For those who are “morbidly obese”, the chances decrease to 1 in 1290 for men and 1 in 677 for women.

Now this is not to say, there is no chance. 1 in 1290 or 1 in 677 for an individual is still a chance. However, a 0.08% or 0.15% chance is not one I, or likely anyone else, should have high faith in. It is morally appalling that we would subject obese people in this country to the quantifiably negative effects of fatphobia in our society for a 0.08% or 0.15% chance.

So Countess de la Warr, let’s not blame the individual. Qala dpa’la does agree that the environment of an individual has an impact on obesity and giving people the tools to manage their health is a good thing. But let us not also delude ourselves. Obesity public policy is decades behind the science and it is high time they caught up with it. Blaming the victim for conditions outside of their control is not a virtue. It is a vice.

This is part 2 of a multi-part series regarding obesity and weight

Siobhan Tierney is a freelance journalist. She can be found on twitter at @siobhantierney