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Polling!
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So, towards the end of last term I was on top of polling and aim to continue that throughout this term. I have also expanded my sheet to now automate regional polling so I aim to also release regional poll figures alongside the national figures (note: this will replace constituency polling as a more-abstract-less-time consuming-thing). As you should know by now, parties are stronger in some areas and weaker in others, so regional polling will help you better game plan electoral strategy without giving away too much. Some disclosures:

  • Regional polling will have quite a high margin of error (I have added /- 2% onto whatever the national figures are that will already be distorted themselves) so they are meant to be advisory not min/maxey.
  • Parties aren't (unless in exceptional circumstances and/or due to my error) going to get better in individual errors, it will always be based on a rough but fixed percentage of your national figures. That being said, a 1% increase nationally for both Party A and Party B might have, say, a 2% increase in Scotland for Party A but only a 1.5% increase for Party B because of how strong the respective parties are in those areas so it is useful to have regional polling weekly.

Regional Polling will also be a good resource for the regional parties, or independent groupings focused on one region (see: Irish Parliamentary Party). Having 1% nationwide might not mean much but through regional polling it will be easier to tell that that is 20% in Wales etc. Likewise, it will be easier for other parties to compare themselves to these figures.

So, all good. My question to you is on polling as a whole. We have quite a few independent groupings at the moment (the highest level I've seen for a while). This is probably just because it's post-election and I expect a lot of them to fold however we are also super active at the moment so who knows. Now, my question is who should be included on polls. I used to just do parties, but then expanded it to independent groupings because having the SDP on 6% or TPM on 3% were significant enough. So, should we (other options are welcome):

  • Limit polling to just parties and regional parties - this will bring a benefit to being a party and keep polls standard throughout the term, but potentially lock out 15% a week in 'others'.
  • Only include parties and independent groupings polling above a certain figure in polls (maybe 2%).
  • Have weekly polls be more restrictive (via option 1 or 2) but have a monthly mega-poll with everyone involved.
  • Include everyone in all polls.

My fear is that we will have polls each week with independent groupings coming and going on them (due to forming/closing), including semi active ones that just have one comment but cling on at like 0.3% making them long and janky. Rest assured whatever option we opt for all parties and independent groupings will have their activity calculated and numbers generated etc.

So, please comment your thoughts at the bottom of the thread and you are welcome to use this thread to ask any other questions you may have on polling - the first national poll is due August 29th.

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