I've said this in a comment before but I want to help save some investors the heartache of learning about this later.

A lot of people are bulled up on TMF, now I don't want to discourage anyone that is using TMF purely as a hedge, as it will likely do much better in a recession than the base case, but here's some data for those that think rate cuts will immediately make TMF go up.

30 year treasuries tend to trade at a premium compared to the risk-free rate, this is called duration premium and is characteristic of a normal yield curve.

The longer run fed funds rate is expected to be between 2.5-3.5 based on the Fed's dot plot.

I calculated that the average premium is 1.46% between the federal funds rate and the 30 year yield from the data I have that goes back to March 1977

Thus we can extrapolate that a fair range for the 30 year yield beyond 2026 would be 3.96%-4.96%

With the current 30 year yield at 4.350, and rates set to remain above 3% until beyond 2026, TMF looks overpriced to me even here.

Data source:

interest rates - FRED * took out Apr 2020 because data missing

dot plot - Federal Reserve