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From a few days ago (before the Kings mishap)
- The LA Clippers gamble on Russell Westbrook
The day after the trade deadline -- after upgrading the roster, but not finding that coveted "traditional" point guard -- Lawrence Frank, the Clippers' president of basketball operations, described the point guard the Clippers wanted. The player would defend, and operate in an ecosystem in which Paul George and Kawhi Leonard would have the ball "60% of the time" -- meaning, one would assume, the point guard in question would be a good shooter. Now they've signed Westbrook, and Tyronn Lue, the Clippers coach, is talking about putting the ball in Westbrook's hands -- even with Leonard and George on the floor -- way more than the fictional scenario Frank described. Gulp. The Clippers have some need for Westbrook's theoretical strengths. They are 20th in drives, and tied for 23rd in shots at the rim. They haven't generated as many catch-and-shoot 3s as in past seasons. They have more shooting around Westbrook than the laser-less Lakers did. But I'm not sure those needs are so glaring; that Westbrook's strengths are what they were two or three seasons ago; or that this remodeled roster is built for an easy Westbrook fit. The Clippers are closer to average in rim attacks and drives than they are to the basement. Their offense -- including their ability to generate good 3s -- has been elite with George and Leonard together, and Leonard looks more like his peak self every game. They are 12th in free throw rate.
Westbrook is a good passer and gets downhill -- things the Clippers need, but at what cost? Westbrook is a turnover machine. He's shooting 58% at the rim -- well below-average -- and his flying misses there almost double as turnovers; Westbrook soars out of bounds, and leaves his team defending 4-on-5. George and Leonard have limitations as playmakers, but should you shift some of their possessions to Westbrook -- a guy the Lakers could not wait to trade? When George and Leonard have the ball, what will Westbrook do? No one guards him on the perimeter. His defenders will sit at the nail, barricading the paint. If you think Westbrook will finally buy into setting screens, I admire your faith in humanity. Westbrook (barely) set career highs in ball screens with the Lakers -- topping out at a whopping two per 100 possessions this season. If there is one coach who might coax it out of him, it's probably Lue -- and in a situation in which Westbrook, coming off a buyout, is fighting for his place in the league. Westbrook thrived with the Houston Rockets after they dispatched centers and opened the floor for him. The Clippers have a good starting center in Ivica Zubac, and just traded for a good backup in Mason Plumlee. Are they reversing course, and recommitting to five-out lineups? There is a lot to figure out, and great irony in the team that has almost mocked the entire concept of the regular-season for four years now feeling urgency to maximize these last 21 games. It feels like a giant gamble -- one I wouldn't have made. The charitable interpretation is that the Clippers (unlike the Lakers) don't need it to work -- that they can bench Westbrook if he flounders, and return to their established style. But does a gamble this big signal they don't have belief in that style anymore -- with Kevin Durant in Phoenix, and the West coming together?
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