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What's Next for Lebanon?
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Ok_Pangolin_9134 is in Lebanon
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With Hezbollah significantly weakened, It seems there's a power vacuum taking place in Lebanon, which raises concerns for domestic unrest.

Does the Lebanese government hold any control over Lebanon's large population centers? What is possibility that domestically unrest will erupt and/or civil war?

It's a very frightening time for Lebanon. Hezbollah was not a benign force, but any such power vacuum can have serious and unpredictable repercussions. As an example, Iraq after Saddam's ouster resulted in Isis, Assad's loss of control resulted in complete chaos in Syria.

On the other hand, there's also the possibility that Lebanon can realize the harms of associating with Teheran and start turning inward and into rebuilding itself. Given Lebanon's dysfunction, it's fractured society, and it's weak governments, this seems like a very unlikely outcome.

Of course even before any long term outlooks can be entertained we need to first see how the current situation unfolds. Israel seems keen on continuing to strike Hezbollah. Hezbollah is continuing to fire rockets, although probably with much less impact as much of its leadership gone. Israel may plan a ground invasion, and that itself can have serious ramifications on Lebanon's internal state, although indications are it will be a small scale incursion into the south only. Iran's response is also very unclear at this point. I doubt they will strike Israel directly however they will likely attempt to funnel more resources into Hezbollah in order to rehabilitate it.

All that being said, I feel horrible for the Lebanese who are taking hit after hit. I'm afraid that civil war and complete chaos are not unlikely.

Can anyone from Lebanon let us know what your thoughts are?

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3 months ago