A few times now, I've tried seeing if I could engineer how a civil war plays out by managing the loyalty of specific generals and governors, ensuring loyal family heads have holdings in fort territories, stranding disloyal generals on islands and withdrawing my transport fleets, smearing the reputations of high powerbase disloyal characters, befriending important generals, etc. etc. etc.

I find that these machinations don't seem to matter. Immaculately loyal characters will happily flip sides on me come a rebellion. I guess I have no clue how civil wars work, because I sure can't predict how they play out at all. Is it really just random? It's especially obnoxious when friendless, 0 popularity characters that I put on trial trigger a civil war that pulls in otherwise loyal generals and admirals.

Does anyone know his the civil war mechanic works? Would love to hear if so. I like the idea of sometimes allowing a civil war to happen, but only after severely rigging the deck against the revolters. It seems fun on rp grounds and as an opportunity to wipe out and destroy the disloyal opposition, rather than keep them forever just barely bribed into loyalty. But it doesn't work practically or for rp if the final battle lines drawn are arbitrary.