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DNA Match Statistics: Kohberger case not unique or unusual
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A few factual errors about the match of the sheath DNA to Kohberger are parroted by Probergers. One of these is that the DNA random match probability for the sheath DNA to Kohberger of 5.37 octillion to one (i.e. that the sheath DNA profile is 5.37 octillion times more likely to be seen if Kohberger was the DNA donor rather than an unrelated individual randomly selected from the general population) is so enormous that it is unique, never before seen in any other criminal case and therefore erroneous or falsified. Some Probergers bandy around poorly understood terms like "prosecutor's fallacy" and others dispute the very clear conclusion that the DNA was single source.

State's motion - Idaho Courts 06/16/23

Some have even posed the question on r/forensics suggesting the Kohberger DNA match stat was unique, unusual or suggestive of a mixed vs single source profile, but then studiously ignore various answers stating these arguments are "categorically false".

Some argue that the Kohberger DNA stats are unique/ unusual or suspicious, as no match statistics of similar magnitude have arisen in any other criminal case. This argument has been the subject of posts on various subs. There are in fact several recent cases from 2024 alone where similar and much higher DNA match statistics have been reported, a few examples:

So arguments that the Kohberger DNA match statistics are unique, unusual and therefore flawed or indicative of a mixed profile are fasle.

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the facts that have been presented so far.

There are a few facts which are very clear:

  1. The DNA on the sheath was single source
  2. The DNA match statistics in this case are not unique or unusual
  3. The DNA on the sheath is a definitive match to Kohberger

That Probergers can't or won't accept these is a reflection on their evidence and science denialism, not the DNA evidence which is robust.

We don’t know how much of a profile they have.

We can infer at very high confidence, because the DNA random match probability quoted requires a full profile, that the profile was complete. This is reinforced by the exclusion stats for the match of Kohberger Snr as the father of the sheath DNA donor and the complete SNP profile used in IGG. While the SNP is a different profile to the direct comparison to Kohberger, the fact it was generated allows an inference about the sheath DNA quantity and quality to be drawn.

Even if we made the unfounded assumption that the sheath DNA profile was partial (ignoring the random match statistic, the paternal exclusion and the generation of an SNP profile), it would still have a unique identification resolution with Kohberger of at least 1 in 10 million (which is the minimum discrimination for a profile to be uploaded to CODIS) - about 8 people in the USA might match. How many of these would be white Elantra drivers out moon-gazing in rural Idaho at 4.00am?

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victims wounds were created by more than one weapon?

Ray-gun, phaser, a Wonderwoman tiara hefted at great speed, a boomerang or the pointy end of a cloudy-sky astronomer's telescope perhaps? I am reluctant to ask, but what is the source for your multiple weapons claim, and, even if there was a credible source, why would you discount a killer being able to carry two weapons?

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I use the term "Proberger" merely as shorthand for the conspiracy theory promoting, anti-scientific and often illogical mountebanks who frequent this and other subs.

What you are stating as "facts" are not in my opinion facts.

That the DNA random match statistic in this case is not unique is a fact. You are correct that the DNA being single source is a statement in a court filing - the DNA profile and lab work will of course be open to defence inspection and challenge. I dealt with your suggestion that the DNA profile was possibly a partial profile by referencing published evidence and known facts such as the random match stats, paternal exclusion, SNP profile - and note there is nothing factual about the assertion of a partial profile.

cases where DNA evidence has been improperly analyzed, improperly handled,

Improper handling, in the form of contamination of the sheath or the swab taken from it, would still require a source of Kohberger's DNA to have yielded his profile. I have yet to see any credible suggestion as to how Kohberger's DNA was introduced into the lab, and any explanation would still face the very considerable coincidence of Kohberger being out driving at 4.00am near the scene. The individual pieces of evidence are given context by each other - the sheath DNA and man described by eyewitness inside and the white Elantra outside being good examples. That a DNA profile matching Kohberger resulted from lab contamination while a car matching his to the detail of missing plate would be so bizarrely odd as to make two identical snowflakes seem mundane.

no knowledge on potential motive, if Bryan knew any of the victims

I don't think motive or connection to victim is relevant to establishing guilt. There have been many cases where a killer did not know the victims, or any connection could not be found or proven in court.

times of death from the autopsy,

Given the PCA was written after the autopsy and clearly states a police view on time of deaths it seems logical and likely the PCA time window is consistent with the autopsy findings.

what was DM texting to others about what she saw and heard

Given you started your comment by stressing the importance of established facts, it is curious you now quote rumours not facts - is there a source for the claim DM texted details to others, and if so if this was not consistent with the PCA?

I agree with much of your list re digital evidence, car info, purchase of knife etc - all of that is unknown and would be hugely relevant and important if extant.

should keep an open mind as because of the gag order,

I agree, and should any significant evidence be presented that suggests innocence, such as a a credible and less lunar alibi, or details which undermines key state evidence, I may indeed change my view. For now I think it highly likely Kohberger is guilty, and I take most issue with the "Probergery" view that there is little or no incriminating evidence -- two judges and three judicial/ quasi judicial processes have concluded that there is significant incriminating evidence, to justify arrest and indictment and it is facile to pretend otherwise.

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It’s just astounding.

More astounding, it was later in a comment that the post showed that "people on r/forensics agree with" the DNA being mixed and the match stats being flawed/ indicative of mixed profile, when the comments state the exact opposite. A Proberger probability prolapse.

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If the State was flawless, we would not have work like this https://www.law.umich.edu/special/exoneration/Pages/about.aspx

I agree - but a majority of successful exoneration cases have used DNA evidence where none was available at trial, or utilised advances in DNA technology since the conviction. Most "Innocence Project" cases focussed on DNA testing where that had not been done (at all, or not done on specific evidence/ at scene or with regard to other potential perpetrators). Most exonerations to date have relied on and demonstrate the importance of DNA evidence to ensuring justice, not that DNA is unreliable. c 595 of the 597 cases on the registry of exhonerations you linked involved post conviction DNA testing in the acquittal - so largely the reverse of the point you're making, especially in relation to this particular post which is specifically on the DNA evidence.

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you just used the words.. “infer”, “ probability”, “assumption”,

How careless of you to omit the adjective, I actually used "unfounded assumption" and I was describing the Proberger speculation about the DNA profile being partial or mixed source.

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he never had to have touched that sheath for his dna to be on it. Reasonable doubt

I fear "reasonable" is in danger of exhaustion by over-work there. The most glaringly obvious way for his DNA to get on the sheath is if he touched it. Can you explain how someone else transferred Kohberger's DNA to the sheath without transferring their own DNA?

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question is how the DNA got on the sheath

Kohberger touched it.

A sheath for a large fixed blade knife under the body of someone killed with a large fixed blade knife, and dropped there by the killer, is definitely connected to the crime.

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with a Proberger and that person doxxed me

Was it a Reddit user who doxxed you? Atrocious behaviour.

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completely destroying posters’ credibility

P0or JelllyG, po0r Professor, poor SubstantialMaize - bless them all and all who sail in or with them. And as for the posturing Pineapple, we would need to dig to find that fruity fiend's credibility.

I read Fry is aspiring to elected office as Sherriff? Surely just a stepping stone toward much grander things - maybe even a seat on the UoI Tourism Department Kohlitburo could be on the cards.

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2 masked individuals in the ether (I am a medium)

Do you know the Pr0fess0r - they are an extra-large and seem to also be fuelled by ether and spirits.

just like I don’t trust politicians

even if they are dead and communicating through the ether?

I think most agree on desire for a fair trial.

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We had some dude here for a while playing cop, but he keep forgetting what agency he was with

iirc he was variously DEA, FBI and a Federal Marshall. He was also a paramedic, pre-med, bar owner and champion surfer. Not as good as the "lady" who was an accountant, a surgeon, a family doctor, a geneticist, also a beautician - who posted "I don't play at being a doctor on the internet, I am one"!

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ever been stated in court documents if the DNA sample was a generous amount?

No quantification has been stated. However, we know there were two complete profiles generated, so an adequate amount

being low quality - like just a few cells

This is a bit of a myth - a full profile from "touch" DNA requires 100-200x more cells than a profile from cheek swab or blood draw. So again, likely a significant amount of skin cells deposited, if that was the source. Touch DNA can also include sweat, mucous etc.

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What is touch DNA 

A general term for DNA recovered where the source (the cell types) was not identified, Usually from skin cells, but can include other cell types and often includes sweat, sebum, mucous. Blood, semen and saliva can be identified by antibody test, separate to the DNA profiling, so touch DNA is often DNA not from those.

Touch DNA requires more cells for a complete profile than DNA profiled from a cheek swab or blood draw, so the idea it indicates a small/ marginal sample is not generally accurate.

supposedly on the brass button matter

Brass can accelerate degradation of DNA. The only relevance would be that it would tend to limit the time window that DNA was deposited on the sheath before it was profiled, given the full profile recovered. Secondary transfer (i.e. one person touches you and then deposits your DNA on an object only they touch) is also very time limited - most studies suggest a maximum 4-5 hour window (without hand washing or much friction in between of course). Secondary transfer seems ruled out by Kohberger's own first alibi - as he was out driving from late November 12th alone.

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Surprising and frankly disappointing that my role as Chief Fry's secret conduit to publish obscure tracts has not been revealed more broadly

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is she still among us with a new user name?

Not sure, I think she vanished. Pity, because if you needed a facial treatment, a haircut, an ECG, a prescription for credulity pills, major elective surgery all while getting your taxes done, she was the woman for it. I think the "surfer/ DEA agent" moves among us still under a new moniker and new adoptive home state having relocated, in their imagination at least, from California.

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The sheath doesn’t place him at the scene of the crime

Clearly the body was planted on top off the sheath.

think they even know that he did do it

For the grossest "fans", the real hybristophiles, I guess they do think he did it and that frames all or part of their fan-like behaviour.

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Guilt by education

And by evidence and apparently having done the crimes, in this instancec

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Fry yoke, aka the ‘Tater Yoke?

😂😂😂🤣🤣👏👏👏

Comrades Fry, Payne and Mowery -- Chief Tater and the Small Fries.

I see Ms. Barlow is taking the stand today, the great Cabbage expert. An aerial vegetable specialist in a state of rooty tubers! An above ground expert in a case where the tunnels are key! Cabbages are not the only leafy greens Kohberger is prone to, and from the intelligence of many Proberger comments not the only legumes involved with the case.

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after learning of the DNA left behind:

Probergers disputing the DNA are flogging a dead, young horse - exfoaliating

BK’s ego to id

😂🤣🤣😂👏👏 he does come across more Niley than wiley.

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believed him innocent ever since I found out about the DNA on the sheath 

interesting - may I ask why/ what about the DNA makes you think innocent, as most would find that incriminating?

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There is no crime!! Time is an illusion - lunchtime doubly so!

It is fortune cookie style ravings.

Oh my, whoever it is has gone right round the bend.

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is the SNP profiling that requires the 100-200x more cells.

No, it is STR profiles:

https://www.fsigenetics.com/article/S1872-4973(20)30225-8/abstract

know why you would think they would not get that many cells from cheek swab or blood draw.

I didn't say that. c 40 cheek cells required for STR profile. c 400 skin cells needed. Of course you could get more from cheek swab.

No, touchDNA is skin cells.

Sweat and mucous can be a major component of touch DNA.

Also "cell free" DNA

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30513439/

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21292581/

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all the killer had to do was pre-sterilise the sheath and then lay it down in some accessible place

😂🤣😂🤣😀 Fascinating. So Kohberger was enticed and inveigled into picking up and opening a sterilised sheath?

Most studies shows c 90% of casual handling of objects leaves no profilable DNA. So from the very start your framing killer was using a very bad and unlikely to succeed approach.

How did the killer know there was any, or sufficient DNA deposited on the sheath? Seems a very uncertain, high risk, likely to fail "framing". Why not take some hair, or a more intimate item used and discarded by Kohberger, if they had access to him?

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had been deliberately planted by someone to implicate Kohberger

The DNA inside, under a body, seems to give context to and derive context from the eyewitness description matching Kohberger and the videos of a car matching Kohberger's, down to detail of missing plate outside.

a few aspects of the "Framing" idea really confound me:

(1) Why none of Kohberger's DNA was planted on a victim, or a door handle in the house etc

(2) Why none of the victim's DNA was planted on Kohberger/ his apartment

(3) Why no tip was phoned in on Kohberger ("I saw him come home on Nov 13 at 5.00am all bloody)

(4) How did the framer know or arrange for Kohberger to have no alibi at 4.00am and actually be out driving near the scene at the time of the crime? Kohberger's alibi is he was driving aimlessly and randomly at that time - seems like a bizarre coincidence he was just south of Moscow just after the killings?

the appearance or the behavioural qualities of a murderer

Surely murderers vary massively and cover all human types of appearance and behaviour, from sweet little old ladies, cherubic and angelic looking youngsters, trustworthy seeming people like vicars, doctors etc etc

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Thanks, and may the force be with you and the spirits be ever chatty.

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Yes ! And perhaps a Gaelic ghostly guide? And maybe a tendency to get blootered on whisky? 😄🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

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would laugh at your jokes but I don’t understand

The ephemeral, mysterious and swirling mists of Caledonian humour do not part for all on this mortal plane. But you werent missing much.

Discernment is my answer.

And high spirits.

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PCR is an amplification process, where single stranded DNA is replicated. Can be done in vivo from a single cell (clearly, otherwise human procreation wouldn't work nor would any tissue regenerate). Probably lower success rates attempting PCR from single cell quantity. I think you are right re c 0.5 ng being preferred for STR profiling.

Sweat would be a carrier and may contain cell free DNA (same for mucous, sebum) - several papers note these can be the majority source for DNA in "touch" samples. Touch DNA is, most broadly, just DNA from a source where cell type was not identified.

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for or the things you suggest he could have done would be much, much harder to set up

Why? If he could rub Kohberger's DNA on a sheath and leave the sheath at the house, why ho DNA on victim or door handle?

Why no phone or other anonymous tip off on Kohberger?

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I feel kind of left out

You didn't miss much. But a really useful poster to know if you need help from the DEA, FBI, and the US Marshalls when you are out surfing.

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No worries, I think we are agreed, and after 20 or so zeroes the probabilities are confounding!

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yes - octillion US is 27 zeros, UK is 48 iirc

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Just how was he supposed to have transported some of BK’s skin cells to apply to the victims or door handles?

Same way he did for the sheath. Or just rub the sheath where it was known to have Kohberger DNA onto a victim.

only BK could do that himself

So BK was handed a sterilised sheath by a gloved individual, which was then handled by a gloved individual into a bag? You'd think he'd notice that as odd.

What sort of tip would you suggest he might have given

Phone tip or email, saying he saw Kohberger 5am Nov 13th with blood on him....

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he would have known that MPD had a contract with Othram

Really? MPD did not and doesnt. You maybe mean ISP? And he would know a relative of BK had used a genetic genealogy service? Gosh. He researched ISP lab contracts as basis to use a sterlised sheath to get BK DNA? Wow!

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What item of BK’s you are suggesting the killer should have got and left at the crime scene

left, or just used - comb, toothbrush, discarded glove ( he is an avid glovecwearer), paper cup etc

But even if it wasn’t I think the killer would have had a Plan B for implication. The car for one thing

So was it BK car at scene? How would killer know if DNA was profiled from sheath? As BK has no felony record his DNA was not in CODIS, how would killer know...?

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but if he had rubbed some of that onto a victim it would have been‘swamped’ by the victim’s DNA

Perhaps you are unfamiliar with the 1000s of rape cases, physical assaults and murders which leave DNA, recoverable even from bloodied victims.

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