The Fractional Orbital Bombardment System, or FOBS, is not a new concept, first having been pioneered by the Soviet Union in the 1960. Rather than following the traditional ballistic trajectory associated with nuclear weapons, it would instead launch its warheads into low-earth orbit where they would then circle the globe and descend upon unsuspecting targets. This system had numerous downsides, including the massive size of the requisite rocket systems, increased cost, and decreased speed; but it did have a number of advantages which China finds particularly valuable--first, it it much more difficult to track, as low-earth orbit has a much lower radar horizon and there are thousands upon thousands of objects in varying trajectories in very-low-earth-orbit nowadays; second, it has no range limitations, and third, it is much more difficult to intercept as it skips across the upper atmosphere, offering a different flightpath than traditional ABM systems are prepared to to deal with.

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As a result, China has developed the DF-51, a supersize ICBM FOBS, somewhat similar to Europe's Vega rocket system though without the final liquid-fueled stage, carrying three 5 megaton warheads instead of a midsize satellite. The poor accuracy [relatively speaking] and relatively long travel time versus traditional ICBMs make this a suboptimal first strike weapon--the launch will still be very obvious to any American satellites. The DF-51 will be placed in superhardened [10kpsi] shelters on the south side of mountains in Tibet, in a similar manner to proposed American Peacekeeper missile deployments from the 1980s; while still possibly vulnerable to direct attack from B-21 bombers with massive bunker-buster nukes, that is a risk inherent in virtually any nuclear deployment and one that we believe to be relatively low.

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