In 2015, Tony Abbott penned what should have been a $10 billion plan to replace Australia’s ageing Collins-class attack submarines with the diesel-electric version of France’s nuclear Barracuda-class. Beginning delivery in the 2030s, this would ensure enduring Australian submarine presence into the 2070s. However, as conflict began to arise around whether the submarines would be built in Adelaide or France, and whether Adelaide was even capable of doing so, the timescale and costs of the project began to balloon. Pretty quickly, the costs were estimated at an eye-watering $86 billion for 12 ships of the class, with the last being delivered in the 2050s. This in turn began to inspire questions about the operational effectiveness of a submarine designed in 2015 operating in a 2050 battlespace, and whether the Collins-class could be maintained until then. The project became so messy that even Scott Morrison considered abandoning it entirely in favour of an updated Collins variant.

Due to budget worries around the Queen Elizabeth carrier being delivered in 2035, PM Wong has decided to cancel the French deal in favour of a more efficient proposal. In doing so, German shipbuilder ThyssenKrupp’s Type-216 design has been brought up for consideration. Its increased payload and extra 40 days underwater, as well as the estimated $20 billion dollar project cost, make it a prime contender. So the government is approaching ThyssenKrupp for the delivery of 12 Type-216s in three batches. The first batch will finish delivery in 2030, the second in 2032 and the final batch in 2034 for a total cost of $20 billion. We suggest the first batch be completed in Germany and the latter two be built in Australia.