President Erdogan, of Turkey, President Aliyev of Azerbaijan, and President... let's just call him Serdar of Turkmenistan, have gathered together in Baku, along with--in association--Qatari Emir Tamim, a shadowy presence behind the fortuitous meeting.

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For there is, indeed, much to discuss for these three proud Turkic states and Qatar, a proud partner of each of them. In large part, this is because with Russia presently... shall we say otherwise occupied, the centre passage through the Caspian has proven by far the most promising route for moving cargo overland from China to Europe. In addition, the gas and oil reserves in the Caspian are of an absolutely vital geostrategic importance--and, besides all that, all three of the Turkic states are vital security partners for Qatar. Well, not Turkmenistan. At least not yet. But very much the other two.

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Trans-Caspian Pipeline

If there is to be one takeaway from this momentous gathering, it is that the Trans-Caspian Pipeline, a project long bandied about in the halls of Europe, will finally be going ahead. With $5 billion in financing provided by the Qatar National Bank, this large, girthy pipe will be laid down upon the soft sands of the Caspian, providing Turkmenistan with--for the first time--an opportunity to export its massive stocks of natural gas to somewhere not China. The completion of this [not actually] momentous feat of engineering is expected in 2027, just in time to fulfill Azerbaijan's gas obligations to the European Union, which is seeking to diversify its sources of the vital fuel away from Russia.

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Actually, We Do Care About Emissions

In another landmark deal, the CEO of Qatar Airways announced that Qatar Airways will be the world's first airline to achieve "carbon neutrality". The precise method of achieving this, however, is a curious one: In offsetting its approximately 23 million tons annually of carbon emissions, Qatar Airways will spend $400,000,000 on improvements to the natural gas infrastructure of Turkmenistan to alleviate the truly massive amount of methane--an extremely potent greenhouse gas--that escapes from the fields, pipelines, and plants of Turkmenistan. The result is that, by 2032, Turkmenistan will have an essentially loss-free natural gas network, allowing it to sell more of that gas on the international market. As a bonus, given the mechanics of methane, this will have even more of a positive effect on global warming in the short term, as methane doesn't last for very long in the atmosphere. If you don't care about the Trans-Caspian Pipeline, care about this. In fact, if you do care about the pipeline, in that silly environmentalist way, please care about this part more.

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QatarEnergy Reaches To New Horizons

The large Umid gas field in the Caspian was abandoned by SOCAR and Nobel some years ago on account of the difficult geology and the lack of experience in deepwater drilling of either partner. QatarEnergy is picking up the stake and will, to the tune of several billion dollars [and several thousand Halliburton consultants and workers] make the Umid gas field a reality, relying, once again, on the political acumen of the Qatari state to make otherwise doing business in Azerbaijan nice and easy for them. This doesn't headline the summit and only makes it to the oil and gas press.

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The World's... Second Oldest Profession? Third? Somewhere Up There.

Not mentioned at all in public was the provision of several billion dollars of military aid into the pockets of strategically located and aligned Azerbaijan, in exchange for certain favors, namely, the proviso of surplus artillery guns, tanks, and other sundries into the Qatari arsenal of dubiously acquired armaments.

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Agreements funded [and presumably soon to be agreed to] included the acquisition for Azerbaijan of:

• 200 VT-4 main battle tanks, totaling just shy of $1 billion
• 200 VN11 infantry fighting vehicles, for about $700 million
• 72 G7 howitzers and 36 G5 howitzers, all towed, for approximately $200 million
• 18 JF-17 fighters, for approximately $600 million
• 162 PLZ-45 self propelled howitzers, for approximately $500 million
• Initial tranche of 200,000 155mm shells, 30,000 from Israel, 50,000 from South Africa, and 120,000 from China, coming to $150,000,000

Due to the utilization of currently idle production lines, surplus equipment and the vast industrial capacity of China, delivery of all these systems is expected to be surprisingly rapid, occurring within the next two years or so.

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Finally, another thing...

On the sidelines of the meeting, Emir Tamim and unexpected guest Father Emir Hamad had a little chat with President Sardar, the consequences of which may range from meaningless to earth-shattering...

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