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March 2nd, 2024

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OVERVIEW

The Iranian Legislative Election of 2024 for the Islamic Consultative Assembly saw the lowest turnout in recorded modern Iranian political history. With a turnout of 21.3%, this is indicative of the approval rating the Islamic Republic regime has in the eyes of the people, as its ostensibly democratic institutions continues to be eroded as the ultraconservative Principalist faction cement their iron grip in power, brutally suppressing all dissent. Large protests were made in over 100 cities on the eve of the elections, as Iranians demonstrated how they’d rather fight for change in the streets rather than through the rigged ballot boxes that the regime had prepared for them.

The conservative moderate coalition did not escape this backdrop of repression, as the Larijani-Rouhani Coalition for Change was gimped from the getgo with over 40 of its most prominent list members being barred from running by the Guardian Council. Former President Ahmadinejad's Supporters of Justice Discourse for Islamic Revival was for the most part permitted to run, however given the lack of a possible base (conservative, religious people who are opposed to the current regime), the performance for the CIR was lacklustre in Ahmadinejad’s return to politics after nearly a decade of exile.

The Reformist’ Reform Front lead by Khatami was almost entirely excluded from the election in one of the most blatant act of electoral engineering the Guardian Council has undertaken so far, with all but 2 of their candidates being allowed to run in their constituencies. This drew widespread condemnation both domestically and abroad, as this meant the result of the election was but a foregone conclusion.

New however to electoral suppression tactics being employed were active Basij plainclothed agents for the first time patrolling the street outside of the voting stations with the goal of making public examples out of individuals who dared interfere with the electoral process which included the wide arrays of protesters around, as well as enforcing some physical brute force over individuals of the electorate who has failed to vote for the Coalition Council of Islamic Revolution Forces (CCIRF).

The election to the Sixth Assembly of Experts also took place concurrently with the election to the Maljes, with immense ramifications for the future of the nation as this Assembly is likely to be the one choosing the next Supreme Leader. To predictable results, with the moderate/reformist People’s Experts failing to mobilize support of the masses to turnout and vote in conjunction with suppression tactics, the vast majority of the Assembly is won by Principalists with the endorsement of the Two Societies (Combatant Clergy Association and Society of Seminary Teachers of Qom).

The more interesting breakdown however, lies upon the implicit race between current President Ebrahim Raisi and the son to the Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei in acquiring supporters for the Assembly. This was where the drama took place, as a divide cropped up amongst the Two Societies, with the Combatant Clergy Association, having strong ties with the late former President Rafsanjani and his protege, Hassan Rouhani’s network, implicitly supporting Mojtaba’s candicacy despite no love lost between the 2. Meanwhile, the ostensibly more theologically experienced Raisi enjoyed the backing of the Society of Seminary Teachers of Qom. This however, was only the implicit understanding amongst those in the know, as the public topic of dispute was the question of whether a nuclear program should be pursued, with the SST standing on the side of support while the CCA opposed. With his control as the nominal leader of the Basij, Mojtaba was able to carry out voter suppression and in some instances lead to near confrontation between Police units, IRGC and Basij.

Late drama emerged also, as Rouhani himself was barred by the Guardian Council from being able to run in the election to the Assembly of Experts, a seat where he contests alongside the current President and aspiring Supreme Leader to be, one Ebrahim Raisi.

RESULTS

ISLAMIC CONSULTATIVE ASSEMBLY

ASSEMBLY OF EXPERT

AFTERMATH

Overshadowing the result of the election however, was the violence that ensued. In what would be dubbed “Black Friday”, peaceful protesters near a voting station on the bustling Valiasr Street of Tehran were shot at by Basij crowd control units, with over 100 dead. This spurred massive protests and confrontation the scale of which just about replicates the height of the Mahsa Amini protests. Basij activity after election day quieted down, especially in Tehran, which lead to instances of massive crowds of people nearly storming the Office of the Supreme Leader before the 20th Ramezan Armoured Brigade from the IRGC was deployed to stop the onslaught of protesters at the gate.

Politically, the election was not the win that incumbent President Ebrahim Raisi was looking for. Lacking a necessary majority in the Assembly of Expert, his position as the heir to the Islamic Republic is threatened as Mojtaba gained allies in the CCA and with tacit support from the moderate coalition, whom Raisi had spent the last 5 years alienating, despite Mojtaba himself far from being anything you’d remotely call “moderate”. In fact, theoretically should his father die tomorrow, Mojtaba may find enough votes should he manage to sway every non-SST exclusive Experts to vote for him, a prospect which does not sound as far fetched as it seem, especially given the fact that the same cannot be said for Raisi’s position.