October 14th, 2023

The people of Poland were divided, maybe more so than ever before, but there was one thing they could agree on: it had been a long campaign season. PiS’ bid for an unprecedented third term in government had been nothing short of bitter, filled to the brim with controversy and conflict. From bribery to media manipulation, dodgy accounting to illegal trade practices, Law and Justice had thrown down every card they had in this showdown. Despite the apparent mountain of wrongdoing, PiS appeared set to comfortably take the most seats in the new Sejm. With this mandate would come a slightly new set of priorities. The party was very much going to continue down its nationalist and populist economic path, balancing a burgeoning private sector with strong state owned enterprises and an expanding welfare state catered to its elderly voter base. In foreign policy however, cracks have begun to emerge in the previously unwavering support for Ukraine. The dispute over Ukrainian grain imports continues to simmer following a desperate attempt to shore up the rural vote and Polish weapons have ceased flowing into the embattled country. Furthermore, leading Sejm candidates like Paweł Kukiz have begun to openly criticize Zelenksy’s government, calling it “corrupt to the core”. It is clear that as the Ukraine War settles into a long grind, Polish officials are reconsidering what kind of support their eastern neighbour really deserves.

In contrast the opposition Civic Platform has doubled down on their support for the European Union and the liberal world order as a whole, hoping to capitalize on discontent around Law and Justice’s disregard for legal norms and open contempt for the EU as a whole. Despite demonstrations drawing historic crowds, it’s an uphill battle for Civic Platform to convert disdain for the ruling party into concrete support, especially as voters look to the economic benefits delivered to them over the past few years through the government’s borderline patronage networks. Furthermore, leader Donald Tusk’s image as a staunch Eurocrat will be difficult to square among Poland’s more skeptical base.

As many predicted PiS had won the day, but the results were far from encouraging for the government hopefuls. Despite winning the largest number of seats, they’d fallen well short of the 231 needed to form government. As such, Law and Justice needed a coalition partner. In this, the pickings were rather slim. Civic Coalition and the New Left were out of the question, having been bitter rivals just hours before. Already many of their spokespeople were latching onto this opportunity to boo a potential minority government. Third Way had built its brand on being opposed to both Law and Justice and the Civic Coalition, a safehaven of enlightened centrists and hackjob libertarians who earned far more political clout being in opposition than being successful. This left Konfederation, a bloc of far-right parties that had achieved a massive swing in the polls at the expense of both main coalitions. Despite their new found popularity, they too built their base off being political outsiders, though their desire to govern was certainly stronger than Third Way.

With little other option, PiS sent out feelers to the Konfederation through far-right faction boss Antoni Macierewicz, hoping to establish common ground for a coalition negotiation. Their opening offer was steep. Konfederation demanded 40% of the Cabinet positions, a stance deemed unacceptable. This however set the ground for further talks between party leaders and after several days of frantic discussion, the two publicly announced a coalition agreement. The Konfederation would receive the posts of Justice, Interior, Culture and National Heritage, Finance and a number of Deputy Minister positions, including Krzysztof Bosak as Deputy PM. It is a shaky coalition to be sure, but only time will tell how it fares.