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Tehran,

October 22nd, 2023

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In the aftermath of the Mahsa Amini protest, large scale repression by the Iranian state apparatus both in the streets as well as in the chambers of government has for the most part limited the influence of Reformists and to a lesser extent Moderates in power. Despite that however, it is clear that there exist a significant appetite for a perceived “change”. 2 of the most significant moderate leaders to date remain Former President Hassan Rouhani and Former Speaker of the Maljes Ali Larijani, who stands in stiff opposition to the ruling Principalists under the incumbent President Raisi. In a move that many Iranian political commentators have remarked for for the last 2 months as correspondence between Larijani and Rouhani grew, the 2 of them have presented a joint Parliamentary List for the upcoming March Election, the Coalition for Change (Farsi: ائتلاف برای تغییر).

This came largely however to the surprise of a large portion of the Western media, to whom Rouhani and Larijani’s last political involvement prior to Larijani’s surprising disqualification in the 2021 Presidential Election mostly involving the 2 standing in opposition to each other. Despite that, the disownment of Ali Larijani and the increasing marginalization of his brother, the incredibly powerful Sadeq Larijani, Chairman of Expediency Discernment Council, has alienated Ali Larijani from the Principalist base, and to whom Rouhani’s base of moderate conservatives and his connection to the late Rafsanjani’s political network, including the powerful Ministry of Intelligence serves as a good benefactor in his attempted return from exile away from Iranian politics.

For Rouhani, the Former President whose image was largely discredited by the Trump Administration and the failure of JCPOA now seeks to rehabilitate himself as Raisi’s popularity amongst the nations’ people dip to unprecedented lows. Despite this however, much is to be said regarding the very low projected turnout for the next election, with turnout in Tehran projected to be as low as 15%. This means that the Coalition for Change faces an uphill battle on the campaign trail in order to be able to make a significant dent in the current, Principalist dominated Maljes.

Another hard-hitting exile, Former President Ahmedinejad is also expected to present his own electoral list for the upcoming election.