Myanmar, following the February 2021 coup d'état, is currently ruled by the State Administration Council (SAC) - led by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, longtime Commander-in-Chief of the Tatmadaw, with a total of 18 members on the SAC. Represented on the SAC is primarily the Tatmadaw and it's political proxy, the Union Solidarity and Development Party, with a single member of the Kayin People's Party (KPP) and a smattering of independents as well.

Following the coup - and following in the long-standing tradition since 1948 of internal conflict - a civil war has raged in Myanmar. Opposing the SAC is the National Unity Government (NUG), a pro-democracy organization formed by elected officials ousted during the coup. Fighting alongside the NUG are various ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), many of whom have traditionally been at odds with the central government in Naypyidaw.

Internationally, the SAC has been under heavy scrutiny. The UNGA passed a recommendation to place an arms embargo on Myanmar; hundreds of international organizations have been pressuring countries across the world to adopt a global arms embargo on Myanmar; ASEAN has blocked Myanmar's participation in regional summits (though, notably, Thailand continues to be an ally of the junta); the US, UK, Canada, and the EU have passed sanctions on leading officers of the SAC; and the BURMA Act, passed by the US Congress, authorizes support to the NUG, NUG-allied EAOs, and other pro-democracy organizations.

The junta has an odd relationship with China. China, seeking to maximize its influence in Myanmar during this period of heavy instability, has supported both various EAOs and the junta - though China's support of the junta is limited, not wanting to jeopardize relations in the UN or in the rest of Southeast Asia. A constant throughline, however, has been the opposition of China to Western-backed pro-democracy forces - aligning the interests of China and the SAC, though this is jeopardized by China's desire to strengthen certain EAOs as well, especially those along the Chinese border which may act as future proxies for Chinese interests.

Russia, however, has been a far firmer supporter of the junta - providing diplomatic backing, resources, and ammunition to the regime. In return, the SAC has supported Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The civil war is nowhere near finished right now. The SAC only has control of about a third of the country's townships - notably including all major population centers - with much of the country being contested ground. The Tatmadaw's manpower is steadily decreasing, with only about 75,000 combat soldiers remaining (down from a peak of ~300,000/400,00). The People's Defense Force (PDF), the armed wing of the NUG, is estimated to have around 65,000 troops.

I plan to write out the civil war. I'm as of yet undecided as if the SAC or the NUG will come out victorious, though I'm very sure that whomever wins will reside over a country tarnished by years of hard, increasingly brutal fighting - and that the civil conflict will not end once the SAC/NUG take over. The EAOs, many of which have been fighting for decades, remain a potent force.