Uni has cooled off a bit so we're back at it.

2026 is an interesting year for Vietnam. The 14th Party Congress means its time to elect the new leadership and given that the current General Secretary has flipped on his pro-China feelings so hard he almost got kicked out of ASEAN, his conservative faction may lose a lot of ground to the reformers and technocrats. The failures of Nguyen Phu Trong and Pham Minh Chinh also invites criticism about the increased role of security and party officials in the Politburo, possibly leading to a revitalisation of the old and traditionalist committee.

In order to realise its goals of becoming a high-income country, the Vietnamese economy must transition from being other people's factory to producing its own high-end products. To do this the state will increase support for domestic companies expanding both their local and international markets, including the monolithic VinGroup's fight against Tesla for domination of the American EV market.

Foreign policy will likely see a return to the middle, hoping to balance Vietnam's territorial disputes with China with its desire to emulate China. The west will be engaged where it is beneficial and rebuffed where it is not, while reengaging ASEAN multilateralism will be paramount.