Tunisia stands in one of its most turbulent political crises since the Arab Spring of 2011.The crisis began on 25 July 2021, after Saied announced the dismissal of the government and the freezing of the Tunisian Parliament. The move was denounced by international organizations and spectators and labeled a “self-coup” Taking advantage of the worsening economic and health situation in Tunisia exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, Tunisia has taken steps towards becoming a presidential government with sweeping political powers. By Autumn 2021, Najla Bouden was appointed Prime Minister, making her the first female prime minister both in Tunisia and the Arab world. She formed a new government loyal to Saied to deal with the economic crisis.

Ever since the release of Tunisian President Kais Saied’s draft constitution proposal and the constitutional referendum scheduled for July 25th 2022; The Tunisian political landscape has shifted dramatically with popular opposition growing against Saied with his plans on turning Tunisia into a hyper centralized presidential system with Islamist characteristics. With the release of the new constitution taking a decidedly more conservative political approach, Leftist political parties and trade unions such as the UGTT that formerly were neutral or indeed supportive of Saied shifted against him. The referendum to approve the new constitution was met with significant distaste by the wider population with only 30% of voter turnout in a referendum that was quite clearly a sham. Saied’s populist rhetoric has fallen flat as more and more of his supporters no longer want to work with him and side with the opposition. Despite its disunity and its broad front, everybody agrees that the President must be removed from power. It nevertheless, did not matter for as once the Constitution was signed, Saied obtained absolute presidential powers, turning Tunisia into a de facto civilian dictatorship.

2023 can be easily described as an escalation of use of force from Kais Saied in a bid to consolidate his dictatorship, The 2022 regional elections were an optical disaster for Kais Saied as opposition parties were able to gain multiple seats in local councils and governorships of Tunisia’s provincial governments, most of whom, Saied reversed through his executive authority, sparking greater unrest in the provinces. Nevertheless the arrival of IMF aid packages in 2022 and additional packages in 2023 helped stabilize the budget somewhat, mitigating the woes of the Tunisian economy in the short term. However the world wide economic recession continued to bring economic malaise to Tunisia. Political polarization continued to grip the country as the democratic rights Tunisians fought for since 2011 have been reversed. Mass protests and strikes regularly gripped the nation as the now underground parties organized a popular resistance against his rule. 2024 resulted in somewhat of a recovery period for Kais Saied as the wind down of the Ukraine War helped significantly with solving Tunisia’s food shortages and economic slowdown. That alongside economic reforms complying with the IMF allowed Tunisia to recover from the economic slowdown restoring some of Saied’s popularity lost during the crisis. General protests have declined as the people grow tired and return to their homes while Saied’s credibility is rebuilt with a reinvigorated economy. It seems that Kais Saied has survived the storm and his regime consolidated within Tunisia, much to the chagrin of the West as the Arab World’s last democracy fizzles out into the wind.