President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has dominated Turkish contemporary politics since the early 2000s adopting a conservative, islamist and authoritarian approach to politics which has guided Turkey for years into a strengthened presidential system, a reworked constitution, widespread purges in the military and civil service, reported accusations of large amounts of corruption, economic mismanagement and an increasingly belligerent behavior in global politics.

Make no mistake, Erdogan has built himself a fortress in the political arena allying with entrenched business interests, supported by highly popular muslim cultural regrowth and populist measures. His party, the AKP is the largest power bloc in Parliament, maintaining it’s tight grip on politics from the local to the national level. A reformed constitution and purged military and civil service ensured his flanks are secure with stacked loyalists within the Turkish military preventing a second coup d’etat incident from occurring such as what happened in 2016. This power allowed him to maintain a rigid quasi authoritarian environment with government oversight over social media, backsliding Turkey’s democracy further into the abyss.

But, even all powerful institutions and seemingly stable governments such as Erdogan’s do not last forever, and they certainly do not like periods of instability as the world is facing right now. The Turkish Currency and interest rate crisis sparked in 2018 has caused significant damage to the Turkish economy with blame pointed squarely at the AKP. Government corruption is rampant as the AKP festers in the rot, causing slowdown and more malaise. The COVID-19 pandemic was certainly not a simple affair for the AKP with hundreds of thousands infected and tens of thousands more dead with the disease spreading far and wide. His popularity has been steadily declining with the exacerbation of these issues, combined with the overarching decade long wealth inequality dilemma that plagued the nation for so long. While political analysts in Turkey consider Erdogan to be an nigh impossible political figure to dislodge, elections are scheduled to take place in late 2023 which might very well be the most important general elections to date in Turkish history.

The Nation Alliance is a broad popular front of the smaller parties united in an ironclad opposition to the AKP’s hegemony in Parliament and Turkish society with a diverse and colorful array of ideologies and commitments all working together in their shared dislike of Erdogan’s conservative islamist agenda. That said it does not mean there are no heavyweights in the Alliance. Mainly the CHP, otherwise known popularly as the Kemalist party, remains the steadfast defender of secularism and liberal democracy in Turkey. Led by Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, its popularity has grown significantly over the years, taking advantage of a liberalizing youth movement in the rapidly urbanizing and cosmopolitan nature of Mediterranean Turkey, Ankara, Thrace, Izmir, Trabzon and many others and is believed to be the only logical counter to the AKP. Within the party, two men present highly capable possibilities for the CHP to turn the tide against Erdogan and become elected as President. Mansur Yavaş, the mayor of Ankara and Ekrem İmamoğlu, the mayor of Istanbul.

Both Yavas and Imamoglu are exceedingly popular political figures, presenting fresh new ideas to the public, highly reputable records on anti corruption efforts, administration, and development, and are relatively new faces in Turkish politics which present a degree of interest from the electorate. While Yavas publicly stated that he would not seek the presidential position, Imamoglu has expressed interest in the position albeit not confirmation up until October 2022 where Imamoglu announced his presidential run to the public on behalf of the CHP. Joining in a unity ticket with Meral Akşener for the position of Prime Minister in a landmark protocol signed in February 2023 on a popular front of the Kemalist parties of the Nation Alliance, this would significantly strengthen the chances of success for the CHP in the elections. While Meral Aksener is an accomplished deputy of Good Party, a kemalist party representing the right wing elements of Kemalism, the bilateral ticket was seen as a sign of changing winds with a reconciliation of the secular left and right in a resolute effort to topple Erdogan’s grip on power.

As campaigning rages on throughout Turkey with the AKP employing ruthless electoral strategies and attacking the CHP through social media and the employment of fake news in a bid to erode their support, Erdogan’s gambit has thus far not been as effective due to the broad ticket and the surprising unity of consciousness of the Nation Alliance against Erdogan. Time will tell if this Alliance will prove it’s worth and remove Erdogan from power or if it shall fall allowing the rise of a new AKP political hegemon