South Korea is entering an important period in its history. Amid the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic and soaring housing prices and poor government responses to these issues, many South Koreans feel pessimistic about their futures. The fulfilling and stable lives they were promised seem unattainable while the political establishment bends the laws they swore to uphold for personal gain. High suicide rates and falling birth rates contrasted with the countries flashy and high tech global image indicates a society struggling beneath its smiling veil. In the international arena, South Korea’s rising clout must compete with the growing great power rivalry in the Indo-Pacific, forcing policymakers to strike an uneasy balance between the geopolitical giants butting heads in the region. As always, North Korea throws a looming shadow over both politics and society, requiring a careful hand to both contain and cooperate with the antagonistic neighbour. To overcome these times and prosper, South Korea will require a skilful guiding hand to navigate the tumultuous waters. As it stands, the people have little faith in any standing candidates to be that hand, but regardless the show must go on.

The Candidates

Lee Jae-myung: Lee emerged from a controversial primary as the Democratic Party’s nominee, despite the close race causing other campaigns to initially demand recounts of the vote. His lower-class upbringing has helped shape his progressive views, making him a strong advocate of social safety-nets and government intervention in the economy. His views on housing assistance, UBI and other social services for young people are particularly popular among younger voters who are feeling the brunt of the soaring housing prices in the country. While his less than favourable views on feminism and gender equality have drawn sharp criticism from progressive critics, it will likely garner him increased support among moderate Gen Z men, who increasingly view feminism as having “gone too far”, believing men are now at a disadvantage in Korean society. This will be particularly important, as this demographic saw a massive swing towards the conservative People Power Party in the Seoul and Busan mayoral elections in 2021. Although this may be detrimental to his support among women, who majority lean towards the Democratic Party, the lack of better alternatives may allow him to maintain their begrudging support in the short term.

Yoon Seok-youl: The People Power Party’s nominee, Yoon is a lifelong lawyer, having regularly served in public prosecution roles, including being the most recent Prosecutor General of South Korea under the Moon government. Although these roles have led to some hope that he will be tougher on the corruption that has been a regular occurrence among South Korea’s political elite, investigation into his own attempts to influence electoral outcomes through politically motivated prosecution cases have damaged his support among some moderates. Although his rhetoric around change and prosperity and not being related to the unpopular incumbent President has garnered much support, allowing him to take the lead in opinion polls in late 2021, his political inexperience has led to numerous gaffes around his foriegn policy and much of his campaign lacks concrete plans for tackling issues most important to voters.

The Campaign

Foreign policy has been a fiery topic among candidates amid rising tensions in the Asia-Pacific and continued missile development by the North Korean regime. Of particular contention is the militarization of the disputed Senkaku Islands by the JSDF in collaboration with the United States. As Japanese nationalists celebrated in the streets, Korean nationalists voiced concern that the Dokdo Islands, wrongfully claimed by Japan, may be further coveted by an emboldened Tokyo. Furthermore, the failure of China to mount an effective response has many with anti-Japanese sentiments worried that Japanese influence may be spreading unchecked in the region at the expense of South Korean interests. This has provided Lee’s campaign, who has expressed apprehension about cooperation with Japan, some ammunition against Yoon, who advocates for a trilateral alliance between South Korea, Japan and the US.

North Korean policy is, as expected, also a contentious topic for candidates amid Pyongyang’s recent history of military build-up, especially in asymmetrical capabilities like nuclear weapons and cyber warfare. Lee, like many of his Democratic Party predecessors, hopes to pursue a policy of peace through negotiation to disarm areas of tension piece by piece. Yoon’s campaign has hit back on these ideas, calling them too soft and ignoring the most complex but vital issues, like nuclear disarmament, in favour of small gains for publicity stunts, a common criticism of Moon’s historic summits. Yoon in contrast, has a much more hawkish approach, in line with more traditional conservative views. Although having rescinded his statement about redeploying American tactical nuclear weapons to the peninsula, he has still advocated for further deployment of US forces in the region, as well as further indigenous development of advanced weapons systems to deter North Korean aggression. On the topic of potential peace with Pyongyang, Yoon said he will refuse to engage in any form of negotiations that don’t involve concrete plans for denuclearisation of the North, potentially returning the peninsula to its previous periods of frosty inter-Korean relations. In particular, Yoon’s enthusiasm to further integrate with US allies in the Pacific has been heavily criticised by Lee, who says that such cooperation must be done cautiously and with great deliberation, less it risks pulling the Korean people into a conflict they have no interest in nor appetite for. In debates on the issue, he was insistent that regardless of bad blood between Washington and Beijing, both are important partners in the region and should be regarded as such. As both men’s stances remain relatively in line with their parties recent positions, this will be unlikely to cause many voters to stray from their camps, although with the fallout of the THAAD dispute still fresh in many minds, voters may be cautious of a candidate who risks antagonising China too much.

Domestic issues are where Lee has shined through, appearing to be far more prepared than his rival, who has relied mostly on populist rhetoric and ‘not being the Democratic Party’, riding off of their slew of recent scandals. While Yoon has definitely seen success among conservative voters on topics such as housing and workers rights, playing off distrust of the current government, who has manipulated policy for the profit of several members. “Clearly, the government cannot be trusted to intervene in the housing market without first dipping their hands in the pool” he said, justifying his belief that free market policies will be a more effective solution for solving the issue of unaffordable housing. However, Lee’s well structured plans for substantial public housing investments, low interest government backed loans, and experimental UBI for young people has succeeded in swaying large swathes of the moderate vote, as Yoon’s comparatively inexperienced campaign struggled to back up his words with effective policy recommendations. On workers rights, Lee has praised the lowering of the working week to 52 hours, promising to create a framework for the eventual transition to a 40 hour work week, on par with most OECD nations. He also committed to improved safety standards and benefits, “As a child, I worked just as hard as any American factory hand. While they were rewarded with enough money to buy houses and raise families, I was rewarded with this”, holding up his hand, permanently damaged in a factory accident. Meanwhile, Yoon has criticised the change in working hours, believing that people should have the option to work longer on key projects if the need arises. “Our hard work and tenacity built this country, we should not limit our potential and allow other nations to eclipse us”.

The Results

As with previous South Korean elections, the outcome was relatively unpredictable right up until election night. For the months leading up, various opinion polls gave either major candidate the lead at different times, although all agreed it would be a close race. Following the conclusion of the vote count, Lee Jae-myung emerged victorious with some 41% of the vote, compared to Yoon Seok-youl’s 34%. Combined, all minor candidates received roughly 15% of the vote. Although the Democratic Party had developed a reputation for corruption and ineptitude in the run up to the election, Lee’s solid policy plans and ability to appeal to working class and downtrodden voters allowed him to take the day. In the end, although Yoon’s words often carried a popular sentiment of distrust and disillusionment with the system, his inexperience in politics led to a poorly constructed platform that lacked appeal for the majority of Koreans, who felt more comforted by Lee’s strong social safety nets in this time of economic uncertainty. Whether he will follow through and repair the reputation of his party will remain to be seen.