March 2024

To call the 2024 Senate electoral map favorable to Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf would be an understatement. Unlike National and Provincial Assemblies, the Senate is indirectly elected. The 23 representatives from each province are elected in secret ballots by the members of that province's provincial assembly to a six year term, meaning that electoral gains in the directly elected legislatures, theoretically, translate into increased gains further down the line in Senate elections, but at a delay: Senate elections are held every three years, with only half of the Senate going up for re-election every year, meaning they lag behind, and are often desynchronized from, the Legislative and Provincial elections.

Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf's heavy advantage in this election is six years in the making. PTI is a relative newcomer onto the political scene of Pakistan: just a decade ago following the 2013 elections, the party had only 10 percent of the seats in the National Assembly, and had very little presence in the provincial assemblies. That all changed in the 2018 general election, when PTI was able to capitalize on a PML(N) weakened by scandal and a hopelessly inept PPP to surge to victory, seizing an absolute majority in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, forming a coalition government in Punjab, and entering into a governing coalition as a junior partner in Balochistan.

There was only one problem. The General Election was held in October of 2018. This meant that when the Senate election came and went in March 2018, PTI had barely any presence in the provincial assemblies with which to campaign for Senate seats. And it showed: PTI only picked up fifteen seats that March. PTI was able to pick up some of that deficit during the 2021 Senate elections, pulling their total Senate seats up to 26 (split between Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab with a small showing in Sindh), but this was not quite enough: even with their coalition allies, PTI only controlled 48 seats out of 100 seats. Since laws (except treasury issues) have to be passed by both the National Assembly and the Senate, this proved a massive stumbling block for Imran Khan's government. Many bills died in the Senate.

But six years of pain have brought PTI to today. The 2024 Senate election comes six months after the General Election. PTI is at its strongest point yet, present in every government. It has secured the accession of Balawaristan into Pakistan, and with it, all but guaranteed it will seize the majority of the 23 new seats it brings. In short, PTI's time is now.

2024 Senate Election Results

Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf has secured an absolute majority in the Senate! Dr. Shahzad Wazeem has been elected as the Chairman of the Senate, the first member of PTI to hold the position.

Though Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf has fallen short of securing the 2/3rds majority needed for constitutional amendments on its own, it is expected that Balochistan Awami Party will align with the government, meaning that only one additional vote is needed--probably to be secured from PML(Q), MQM(P), or MWMP.

The Pakistan Peoples Party and the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) have both been dealt their greatest defeat in the history of Pakistani Senate elections, with PML(N) performing so poorly that they aren't even one of the three largest parties in the body. Despite performing worse in the General Elections, Pakistan Peoples Party was sort of spared in these elections: since only half of the Senate seats from every given province are up for election every three years, the Pakistan Peoples Party only got demolished in an election for half of the seats from Sindh! PPP was also able to pick up some seats from Balawaristan (where they are the second largest party and the leader of the opposition), which helped to staunch some of the bleeding. If nothing happens between now and 2027, though, their fortunes are remarkably bleak.

1: In addition to the 47 seats up for election, four seats previously representing the Federally Administered Tribal Regions have been eliminated. They have been removed from the "Seats Up For Election" count. One seat was held by an independent, and one seat each was held by PTI, PPPP, and PML(N). Likewise, the 23 new seats from Balawaristan are not included in this total.

2: Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarians are an electoral extension of Pakistan Peoples Party which was formed in 2002 to avoid restrictions imposed on the PPP by military dictator Pervez Musharraf. It continues to contest Senate elections in place of the larger PPP.

3: Technically, all of the PML(N) members up for election this cycle were declared to be running as independent candidates, not PML(N) candidates, in 2018 due to a kerfuffle in Pakistani politics when the previous Prime Minister and leader of PML(N), Nawaz Sharif, was deemed retroactively ineligible to serve as PML(N)'s party leader by the Election Commission of Pakistan. To make things easier, these independents, who were all actually running as PML(N) members this time, have been listed under PML(N)'s name.

4: Pakistan's Senate in 201 technically has 100 seats. However, one seat is vacant because in 2018, Senator-Elect Ishaq Dar of PML(N) was unable to take his oath due to ongoing legal battles regarding alleged corruption. He has been in the United Kingdom claiming political asylum since June 2019. With the 2018 seats finally coming up for re-election in 2024, his vacant seat will finally be filled. In other words, PML(N) has an extra seat up for re-election here that is listed, but is presently vacant. Fun trivia.

5: Fazl-ur-Rehman is the leader of Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, which is the leading party of Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal.

6: Muttahida Majilis-e-Amal is a coalition of several parties, so while MMA itself doesn't own any seats in the senate, its constituent parties do. Their seats have been combined for convenience.