The stalemate that ensued after the loss of Limpopo lasted nearly a month as both sides waited for the other to blink. Neither was confident enough to launch a major operation yet. But the SAPLA would ultimately move first--advancing on the 1 Motorway linking Johannesburg to Pretoria, in a clear attempt to link up and ultimately encircle the city, and with it a nominal population of 2 million [though many had already fled], the executive branch of government, the defense-industrial complex, the Air Force, and... well, you get the idea.

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The push on Pretoria sent the SANDF into a tizzy, and pushed them to activate the offensive operation they had already been planning to push back the SAPLA around Pretoria. Pulling troops frantically from the rest of the country and throwing them into Pretoria--fatefully, from Mpumalanga to the East, where the rebel threat was considered "contained" and risk of continued uprising low--they mustered almost 30,000 combat troops outside Pretoria, combined with 50,000 National Police and an assorted smorgasbord of PMCs numbering in the single thousands. The SAPLA was beaten back after bitter fighting and the SANDF has begun to push into core RCPA-controlled neighborhoods at this point, though it is doing so at great cost and very slowly.

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However, the government underestimated the strategic capability of the rebels--and this was to be their undoing. Their investment was not on taking a heavily defended, white-majority, hostile urban centre. No, it was in creating a distraction. A distraction which would allow them to seize the real prize: Mpumalanga. The province was poor, even by South African standards. Black majority. ANC hold was tenous and essentially a function of President Mabuza's political machine, which was injured badly by the wave of SAPLA assassinations of prior months. And, importantly, as the government had seemed to forget about despite citing it as one of the reasons for concentrating on the province, it held nearly all of South Africa's remaining electrical generating capacity--only 8GW of South Africa's 50 GW of generating capacity would remain accessible, meaning that most of South Africa would be without electricity, hence rationing, water issues, etc and general damage to the government's status.

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SAPLA forces advanced across Mpumalanga at seemingly lightning speed, using what gas they had or could capture, isolating small garrisons of soldiers and police, who often surrendered or even just defected preemptively. Government defenses collapsed overnight and the population seemed at worst apathetic to the oncoming invaders--in some cases they were actively welcomed. Most of Mpumalanga Province has now fallen under rebel control, with Mbombela being the first white population centre of appreciable size to fall into their hands--largely unevacuated given how sudden the offensive came, though reports suggest some white residents have fled into eSwatini. Middelburg and Emlahleni remain in government hands thanks to a belated government counter-offensive but little more than that. Power has been cut to much of South Africa and random shortages are now frequent due to expected follow-on effects, including a shortage of diesel as people run generators. This has been a serious blow to the government's prestige, and though the situation may be salvageable, it is unclear whether it will actually be able to given its current state.

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Casualties [best guess]

SANDF:

• 491 killed [mostly in assassinations and small actions]
• 821 wounded
• Significant desertion problem, around ~5000, mostly soldiers and mostly in Mpumalanga, appear to have abandoned their posts, but it's hard to tell given endemic fraud.
• 20 Ratel IFVs lost
• 170 unarmored vehicles lost
• 4 Olifant MBTs lost

SAP [Police]:

• 933 killed [also a minor scandal involving embezzlement of funds meant for bulletproof vests]
• 1855 wounded
• Police force now up there with Afghan National Police for "force effectiveness" and "desertion rates"
• Estimated ~2000 vehicles destroyed or captured, mostly police cruisers and vans

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SAPLA [official armed fighting wing of the EFF]:

• 770 killed [claimed by group], 951 killed [government claim], 823 killed [neutral observers]
• 1422 wounded [claimed by group], 1599 wounded [government claim], ~1500 wounded [neutral observers]
• Continues to gain new recruits, largely from disaffected youth and prior DOR members, as well as defecting members of the SANDF

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DOR [EFF "Civil Defense Organization"]:

• 2655 killed in violence [government claim], ~1300 killed [neutral observers] [no statistics released by DOR]
• Unknown wounded
• Approximately 4,000 members arrested

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Civilians:

• Around 500 [government claim], ~1100 [neutral claim]

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Map: